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tv   Washington This Week  CSPAN  September 8, 2012 10:00am-2:00pm EDT

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we could imagine if he passes away in the absence of a resolution. host: to finish with this thought from twitter. i do not understand why everyone is so concerned with tibet. guest: i think the biggest problem we have in our securityy terrorism is a big problem, proliferation, global warming -- but effectively working with all these things is consolidation and renew all the reforming the united states and strengthening our infrastructure. if america gets its act together, especially with respect to the chinese, their respect success. if we are successful, and we
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will have a lot of influence. i would not said let's forget the world, but look at what we can do to advance our competitive position. host: talking about secretary clinton costs travel to china and u.s.-china relations. thank you. tomorrow, our national affairs columnist and the author of "who is counting?" 7:45 a.m. us at a 30 a.m., ala -- at 8:30 a.m., alan comles. and then aid to egypt in their
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transition to democracy. your calls starting tomorrow at 7:00 a.m. thank you for joining us. [captioning performed by national captioning institute] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2012] >> june is for the presidential debates live on c-span. next, democrats discussed the 2012 election. first, pollster dole ben sun -- bolstered joel benenson. then nancy pelosi and then gene sperling. >> so how do students cheat? let me count the ways.
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[laughter] researchers conducted in 1993 study that tallied the cheating activities reported by students in various service through the years. the laundry list includes copying from another students exam, taking an exam and for someone else, purchasing term papers, copying materials without footnoting, faking a list to avoid an exam, using a four books during an exam when prohibited, reviewing a stolen copy of an exam, giving test questions to students in another class, developing a personal relationship with an instructor for the purpose of getting tested affirmation, downright bribery and blackmail, hiring a ghostwriter, altering or forging official university
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documents, and collaborating on homework and take-home exams when the instructions require independent work. >> it is hard to maintain the amateur focus because everyone wants to make a buck off these students. for everybody wants to make a buck off the big time student athletes. the problem is that they are a very tiny fraction of their french's -- of our franchise. we have 430 student athletes -- 430,000 student athletes in our franchise. >> students who play sports at a college at a high-level our students and athletes, just like any two-career person. they should come if they are functioning well in both spheres, the university is responsible for making them bonafide athletes and the universities do not do very good jobs.
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the n.c.a.a. does very well. they are all so athletes. they work 40 hours a week as athletes. they have to work as students and a lot of them are not willing that academically. someone to perform as students and methods, they deserve enormous respect, beyond even the accolades and get on the field. what we get our boos and was present condescension and "showed up, you're lucky to get your scholarship." >> we will show you more of uva theresa sullivan's speech on cheating. >> this week in charlotte, during the democratic national convention, "the atlantic hadhly," closeand others conversations.
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this is 35 minutes. >> good good morning. good morning and welcome. i am vice-president of "the atlantic." we will be doing daily briefings every morning through thursday. i hope you will find this a convenient place to stop, have breakfast a messy friends and hear good news and information. we have a terrific group of underwriters supporting us this week. i would like to recognize them and thank them. it takes a lot to put on these programs so we are very appreciative of our underwriters.
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called "theram is election in numbers." id is a conversation with leading pollsters. you will hear this morning from ,oel benenson, margie o'meara and john antholony. we have a great online audience as well and a tv audience. we are joined at and for any of minor tv viewers would like to join the conversation or post questions, please do so on twitter using # dailybriefing. i would like to introduce two to two moderators. they will begin their program
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with an interview with joel benenson. he served as a strategic analyst and worked with political leaders, business leaders and advocacy institutions. he is best known as the lead pollster for president barack obama during the 2008 election and he continues in that role today. welcome to all of you. thank you for being here. i will turn things over to ron and joe. >> can everybody hear me out there? year ago. bill, do you want to join us? that way he does now have to talk back and forth between us. joel, i appreciate coming. >> good to be here. >> this is a follow up on a conversation we had last week in tampa with ron kaufman when we talk a little bit about race and
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politics. it made a little bit of news. this is something you and i have talked about over the years and we have agreed to disagree. do you think the president's race is the factor at all in this election? >> we talked a lot about it in 2008. president obama, when he was running in 2008 said, " i won't win this election because i am african-american and i won't lose this race because i am african-american parco i think that was true then and i think it is true today. there is a lot the on in this country coming in this world, they are concerned about. this election is about big things in their lives. he has been present for four years. he has done great things as president. we will win this election based on the merits, based on who he is, based on what he's doing for average americans. working and middle-class people were trying to reclaim a sense
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of security. i think that is what they will vote on. they will vote on the quality of their lives. which one of these two guys will make my life better over the next four years. you will be fighting for me every day because the circumstances out there have been pretty tough for these folks for about a decade. >> do you think that african- american voters would not vote for him based on race but for a democrat period? >> there are party-line voters out there. there are people who were strong republicans who do not split their tickets. that is despite the people identify a growing number of independent voters are sent the puck -- or self identifying independent voters. one of the dynamics you really have is independents who lean democrats or independents that lean republican. i think african-americans have
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been a core democratic voting bloc, but they don't give the average vote. >> the romney campaign said that they believe that the will fell the -- the welfare reform act was intended to move white voters who had voted for obama or mike moved for obama and move them into the romney campaign. they believe it has. they believe that the welfare at has been -- the welfare ad has been as effective as a race car. >> they also believe -- they said they would get a big bounce out of the convention, which they did not have. they have repeatedly gone to the press with various points of bluster over what is happening in their campaign. the fundamental fact is still the same. we have an election where people are looking to president obama, who they believe is fighting for them every day, who believed in
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a bg in an economy that is built last based on the middle class, who believes in the same top- down economic theory that frankly not only crashed our economy but that the middle class recognizes has been punishing them for a decade. >> on the question, is the welfare add moving white voters away from obama or not? >> no. >> is the romney campaign playing a race card by doing that? >> you would have to us the romney campaign. >> if it is not moving voters, why did you have such a quick and powerful response with bill clinton? >> we have had a quick and powerful response to the multimillion-dollar negative attack they have been waging along with the super? for months. people look at us and we were responding back in may. we started in june to respond to attack ads. this is nothing new. we will not let their tax go unanswered. there has been a lot of talk
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about negativity all-around. this has been a 14-month constant drumbeat of an attack from the republican party on president obama. if you go back and watch their debates through their highly covered republican primary season, every person on that stage spent their tan -- their time campaigning attacking this president. their job from day one is to run a massively negative campaign. we're not surprised when they go on the air with negative ads. we don't -- we are not surprised when they go on air with negative ads that are not true. they have publicly said that they don't care about the facts. we will just do what we do as a campaign, respond when we need to and drive our message going forward. >> your campaign has also indulged in some negative advertising. some people have stretched the truth just a bit. for example, romney topos
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position on abortion. >> look, mitt romney has very clearly said that he wants to over two rogue wave. roe v. wade is still all the land and it would be overturned. from the supreme court in the constitution the deal clincher revered gives the women the right to choice and the right to make decisions about their own bodies and their own health care. he said that, i didn't. that ad is accurate. >> not in the sense that he opposes abortion in terms of the life of the mother. >> if you overturn roe v wade, you overturn roe v. wade. that is the law of the land. if you want to overturn the law of the land, that is what you are overturning. you can dance around that, but if you believe something different, you should say very clearly what you believe in and what lawyer would put in place instead. >> you think it makes any difference whether the
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advertising is true or false? [laughter] >> there are a couple of things about advertising. i said a few weeks ago that we will look back on something we have not experienced before, which is an unprecedented amount of money being spent in total to try to persuade a very small slice of the electorate. i think the dollar per boat that is in place is quite disproportionate. we don't know how voters are responding to this, how they are absorbing it. i think there is a lot of tuning out going on. i give voters a lot of credit always. i never underestimate the electorate. i think people are very good at sifting through ads. i think they react more to negative ads, react more adversely to negative ads than they have previously. they want more facts. for authenticity.
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-- they want more authenticity. there be as meter is pretty high with things they see pretty quickly. maybe that is why some people are spending so much money out there. whether all of it will cut through will remain to be seen. >> let's look at some numbers. number one, the tergovernor roms the head of president clinton on fixing the economy. >> i think the main president obama. i think you're affected by president clinton's speech. talk about taking us back to the past. >> they could have been worse. is the second set of arguments at all lay argument -- when people say that he fights like me, is a somebody that makes them think that he can fix the
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economy? >> if you use the words understands the economy -- economy usually connotes some kind of academic or formal understanding of economic principles. people would say economists understand the economy. that is what they do for a living. there is an element of economics and that question. there is no doubt about that. that is certainly clear. i think that governor romney, because he is a businessman, gets some credit for it, but it is not a total past because it is a double-edged sword for him. understands people like me -- people column empathy attributes are character attributes. they are putting them in the wrong box. if you are an american and part of the middle class, if you want
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to know who is a person who will be fighting for me day in and day out of the next four years, who will be the person who will be standing up for me when tough times, or when corporations want to shift jobs overseas, who will get rid of those tax breaks and ship jobs overseas and keep my job here and will let them go? those kinds of decisions are part of why someone thinks you're fighting for them, why they think it will fight for them every day, and has very much to do with their economic life. i think they get put in boxes too neatly. obama is drawn character issues and romney is strong on the economy. i don't think that is true. i think obama is much stronger on the economy. when you ask that in a head-to- head question, we have almost a double-digit lead on who people believe will fight for the middle class in america today. if they are the more central question to how we will create a strong economy with security
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for working people, an economy that will be durable and built to last, i don't know what that is. the question -- >> i think there is. the question is who will lay it out for them. what is the agenda? will we hear on thursday. >> to say that he has now laid out an agenda for the second term, let's not forget that, a year ago almost to the day, the president laid out an extensive plan that could create a million jobs in america today. it could have created a million jobs in nearly a year ago when he introduced his jobs plan that had 7 points to it. we pass the perils tax through the rest of the year, up to and through today, the republican congress has decided to sit on their hands. they will let imploded up for a vote. they voted to repeal obamacare 22 times, but there will not put jobs programs up for a vote.
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a year ago, we have a lot of things that have a lot of validity of this time in this economy. we need people working on things that need to get the economy going. our roared -- our roads, bridges, new schools, being able to educate our kids. you heard business leaders talking about this last night. microsoft executives say they have 6000 jobs they can fill, but we don't have the kids educated to fill those jobs in america right now -- that is incredibly vital. we should rebuild their schools and modernize and so the kids get the training they need for some of those jobs. president obama will be speaking on a thursday night. he has been going around the country talking about the various things he wants to do. he will be laying out that plan in more detail as we head towards thursday night and deliver that to the country. the plan is very clear. he has laid out where we need to focus our efforts, what we need to do, and he has a plan that is
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balanced to bring down our deficit in a balanced way, that puts a certain amount of revenues on the table, a much smaller percentage than the cuts, near a small brochure he asked millionaires to pay more n.j. a small portion he asked millionaires to pay more to bring down our deficit. students can go to community colleges and partner with businesses in the community. the president has put that on the table. that is part of the plan going forward as well. >> what does your survey tell you about who the persuade a bull's -- the persuadables are? >> we have said from the
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beginning this would be a very competitive election. we always knew that. when we won with 53% of the vote in 2008, president obama was only the fourth democrat industry to get 53% of the vote. in the last six elections, only two presidents got that high. first, president bush got to 53%. president obama got 253%. in between, the only other president who has gone to 50% was president george w. bush. i think there are millions of persuadeable voters, but in terms of the electorate, it is a smaller and smaller group. you're looking at people who are truly undecided voters today and truly persuadeable today, we're barely breaking double digits at that. we're probably in the high single digits. if you look at soft obama
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voters, soft romney voters and undecided, you're looking at 9% to 10%. >> who are they? >> if i told you that, i would tell you pass -- i would tell neil newpas. >> are the women with college degrees? >> when you try to define them, there is some overlap. white suburban women have always been an important part of presidential elections. >> are they late this seiders? >> they tend to. although -- are the late decide rs? >> they tend to. we're looking at nine weeks at coming going into the republican convention, that group has not changed from the start of the
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republican convention. i think you have a lot more voters were locked in. you see younger voters getting galvanized now. they are volunteering in the campaign again. obviously, we will continue to do work to turn out our voters, our core voters, young voters, african-americans, latino voters. but i think white suburban women -- we did very well, by the way. and now less campaign, at the very end of the campaign, we were targeting quite independent rural voters. i think there are some groups that you traditionally seek, but we have a few others that we
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believe our in our zone right now. >> here is the softball. the you try to measure romney bounce?ounce >> i think there are a couple of things going on. the answer to this is then no one is seeing any kind of bounce. no one saw a big bounce from paul ryan being put on the ticket. there are two things happening. number one, i think that the convention had gaps and it from a message perspective and some inconsistencies day today, speaker to speaker. i don't think they created a real threat about it wanted to do other than the drumbeat on obama was the most consistent thing. obama field here, obama did -- it was all pretty negative. i don't think that helped them. but there are other structural
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factors that are minimizing the bounce you get from these things. when john kennedy was nominated for president, it was around july 15th 1960. even bill clinton, at his convention in 1996, it was around july 28th. we're past labor day, what was the traditional beginning of the campaign. u.n. from the convention to gather steam and you went out to campaign. here we are two days past labor day and we have not officially had the renomination of president obama. the later you push them and with more money spent up front, i think you will start, if this pattern continues, to see box minimize only because of the schedule in the process and things being pushed back. people get into the campaign sooner and align themselves sooner. >> let's take some questions from the crowd. given everything you're saying, the various low return on investment for either party, is
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this the last time we will see a three or four-day convention? >> we have had four-day conventions for a long time. we went to a three-day convention, not because of the unfortunate hurricane that hit tampa -- they had to shrink their convention and they probably found that you can get everything into three days. you may see that. especially as you go later in the campaign. you want to be out campaigning with real people. yet to do the business you have to do with your party. you want to have the convention and then go back and talk to americans who want to hear from you. >> would you briefly consider one day in various locations? >> i think that was discussed early on, but it was also shelved early on. >> do we have any questions out there? right there. we will bring a microphone around to anyone wants to ask a
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question. >> i am a public school teacher in new york city. i teach u.s. government. and not dead in the new york times, you were quoted saying that 20% of the electorate is up for grabs and each campaign has their own way of getting to that 10%. the thesis is that the media is far behind were the campaigns are and there has been a transition in the last 10 years were campaigns have become much more sophisticated in terms of polling and the media has not been able to keep up with it. i was wondering if he could say a few words about that. >> just to clarify, he was not
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just saying that the media could not keep up with it on the polling site. his article was about the technology of campaigns becoming more and vans to generally and the campaigns incorporating that technology to their advantage for legitimate campaign presses it -- campaign purposes, all of us are doing it. you cover these campaigns once every four years or once every six years. this is the business that people are in to win elections. between the four years, we spend our * maximizing techniques we can use to communicate with voters -- we spend our time maximizing techniques you can use to communicate with voters, especially when it is so cluttered. improving the voter lists, the ability to update your list, how many of them can you communicate with directly on the one on one conversation? it is not universal, but it is getting very close pretty fast. when we talk about tv stuff,
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there are various ways that voters are being taught to that is very personal. i think it is good process, but is hard to keep up with that if you're not making investments in the kind of techniques and data analysis that you would use. those are big investments. it is more than doing a poll once a month. a lot of that work is done using database building and database modeling and then going back and pulling and setting up models on those voters. so it not -- so it is not about media pulling. there are two ends of the spectrum. he quoted me very fairly. but there is a second part to one thing i said. yes, these techniques are advancing, but there is increasing pressure on journalists. he wanted to talk to me because i was on "the daily news" as a reporter for a long time. some journalists that have known for 25 years, they get out there in the next hour with whatever you have instead turned to think
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it through and get to the better place about informing your readers. the web is a great blessing for the way we can dispense information. but it is putting pressures on political reporters in a way where you put that out there, even though you want to do a logger think peace, and your editors say, i know you wanted to it to deeper, but these other organizations have that. doce stat. every -- go chase that. we have to have a strong media and a strong -- we need the media to hold any of us accountable when our ads are not telling the truth. there are things people need. we need honest brokers in the conversation.
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that would be something that could be a way for the media to count. >> i could vouch for the former argument. in 2005, we did a book on the bush campaign micro is disturbing. -- microbetargeting. things are moving so quickly. it is passed me. here. >> i will try to give short answers so we can get more questions. >> i am interested in the degree of gender disparity between the can and its support levels. is it a novel as that sought to use the changing for when the
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next generation of republican leaders come along. obama has a 10% advantage over women. romney has an advantage over men. it does not sound very natural to me. >> on the last premise, no candidate starts with a gender gap among women in this country. you work for it and you earn it and you talk to them about issues that matter to them in their lives. any democrat who went to the 2010 election can tell you that because there was no gender gap. women broke free much 5050. --. the reason there is a gender gap in the ceiling -- in this election, it works very well in a candid if level. -- in the candidates level. the president signed, the first bill he signed into law would give women better pay.
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he signed the lee ledbetter -- the lilly ledbetter act. when you talk to women about health care, they're not just decisions about health care. when you say you want to get rid of planned parenthood, there are women in this country who are primary breadwinners, who get mammograms who get pap smears and get treatment there that they cannot get anywhere else. it keeps them strong for their families. it keeps them strong and healthy for their jobs and the economy. they see one president who truly believes that and understands that. and there is one candidate who does not. when you get their vote, you get their vote. and when you don't, you don't. i do think they have a structural problem. there are issues with young women that they are tremendously
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out of touch with. this is more generational, but it also has some universality. when you don't embrace global warming and the idea that we have environmental threats that will destroy -- you look at floods, fires, hurricanes and the degree of them, there are men and women who feel incredibly out of touch if you do not understand the dynamics and not committed to creating clean energy. when you take the position that is extremely harsh on how you want to treat children who are brought to this children as predicted this country as infants and have pledged allegiance to this country since the war in kindergarten and want to stay in this country and the americans and you want to veto a bill that would let them stay there and become the kinds of citizens that the executive at microsoft was talking about, who will become the engineers and will work in your tech industry, serving a military anyone to veto that, you lose a whole lot of people. but these issues are also very
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important to women. i think you earn those boats. the republican party has had a consistent problem on some of these issues. but we have been finding out those issues and that is why we have a gender gap in this race. >> circle back to the top rope trick. health-conscious is the present about talking about race too much -- how conscious is the president about talking about race too much? >> i don't know what the question is about. he talks about what is important to the american people every day. from the day he get into the oval office, he said i want 10 letters a night from people to read. i want them handed to me. he keeps them. he reads them. he apparently brings them up to people in conversation on the white house staff. this is a person who is focused on the lives of people day in and day out. >> i am struck by the fact that
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president clinton made an effort to talk about race relations. president obama does not seem to quite as much emphasis on it. why? >> people run and govern in different times. one of the most controversial issues the president clinton had to deal with back in the 1990's was reaction to the affirmative- action case in the united states supreme court. the african-american community embraced president clinton in a way and deservedly so. he was young. he was hit. he played his saxophone on mtv. and young people, african- americans, saw somebody who would be the next generation of leaders in america. president obama, from the first time president clinton got elected, it is 20 years later. president obama comes into office -- four years ago, we were sitting here and lehman
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brothers had not collapsed yet. we were 13 days away from the lehman brothers collapse and our entire financial system being brought to its knees. our economy was shaken to the ground. that has been the issue that is front and center. that is what president obama is focused on. >> right here, please. >> polling is one thing and the other thing is the turnout. i just came out from colorado and you hear people talking about a silent majority. hispanics say they will vote for barack obama, if they vote. but the voter turnout may be very low. is that a problem you're seeing? . -- a turn out operation. we said in 2008 that it would be something that you have never
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seen. in colorado, the crowd was twice the size. you have some voting groups of people say they are worried about with certain groups, latino voters, young african- american voters -- i don't think there is any enthusiasm gap there. historically, this is when they pay attention to the race. young kids are back at college, registering, turning out. every stop the president has been at this week, the crowds have been bigger. we have to work very hard at it. we have to go back to the sophisticated models. we have sophisticated ways of identifying who are targets are, who are persuasion targets are, and make sure that we spend the right amount of time communicating what we need to communicate to get those voters who are strong obama voters to the polls and those who are
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persuadeable come to our side. you're not painting a ribbon with the same brush and the same message. that is where the individual messaging comes into play. i think we will have a good turnout operation and it will meet the goals we need to win. >> thank you for coming. thank you for your questions. we will have a panel next. i think that elizabeth will introduce. a round of applause. thank you all. [applause] >> thank you. >> continuing now with discussions posted this week in charlotte by "the atlanta," " national journal," and cbs. followed by a panel with connecticut gov. daniel molloy, white house domestic director natalie barnes, and connecticut congressman joe courtney.
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this is one hour. > >> good morning, everybody. just want to give you a quick preview of what we will do today. we will start the program with a conversation with leader policy and the chief white house correspondent of cnn and die. -- and i. and then we will have a panel discussion on a reality check, the environment into which some ideas we will be discussing in the next 40 minutes or so will be received. but we are honored to be joined by nancy pelosi, the democratic leader in the house, rep of california, i say with pride, since 1987 and the first female speaker of the house of representatives. let's talk about what the democrats would do if president
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obama is reelected and the wind power in congress in 2013. but let's start with the election that will determine how many seedy side polls. most political analysts and commentators have been dubious that the democrats will lead the 25 seats to win majority in the house. you have had 62 fund-raising events in the last five weeks. what opportunity you see at this point? where do you see the best chance for democrats to make gains in november? >> so you just want to talk politics? >> really quick. >> first, i want to thank elizabeth and anne making this possible. i always mention that, decades ago, when i was in high school, in a writing class, we had to all take a subscription to what was then called "the atlantic
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monthly." that was my start. that continues, never dreaming that i would be here with ron asking me about the election. nobody thought that we would pass the affordable care act. i think you'll remember that. i told them we were going to and we did. how we will win is a drive to 25, mano a mano, door-to-door, precinct by precinct, neighborhood by neighborhood, district by district, on the ground and in the air and in the new media. if you really want to know, we have 63 seats held by republicans that were won by barack obama. of those, 18 were also won by john kerry. we expect to win two-thirds of the ones won by john kerry, one- third of those won by barack obama alone, 15 -- that = 27.
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that at a minimum. we expected to that in states where the president is not campaigning -- texas, california, illinois, new york, maryland, washington state, so far arizona we don't know, and other states throughout the country. we can get half of what we need in the first four states, getting to the high teens or 20. then we go to where the president is -- florida, ohio, iowa, nevada and we will see again some of the other states where he may or may not be. i don't know if he is in pennsylvania. >> right. >> in any event, the opportunity is there. we lost the majority last time by 250,000 votes. you would have thought it was much bigger than that.
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it is just a few votes, district ict. so this may be more on the numbers then you want to know. he is the field marshal of all of this. but i give you his most conservative -- we can be conservative from time to time -- most conservative clear ride, worst-case scenario of how it is. democracy for poll, which is always a tough poll for us, they just put out something that is pre-todd akin. when they released the information, we could see it. it was in the public domain. it had 27 of the toughest races for the republicans, incumbent republicans. 27 races where the democrats, by name, was six points ahead of
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the republicans. so it is there. as i say, it is on the ground, back to the mano a mano. we are not yielding one grain of sand because we think so much is at stake for our country. >> this is an unusual alexian. -- this is an unusual election. house democrats ultimately came in line. in the post-election period, what line do you think house democrats will draw? >>250. the president has committed to that. my same 1 million, we wanted to see if there was any place where the republicans would say, ok, that is fair. people making a million dollars
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a year should pay more. but there was no further discussion. >> do you think democrats will be willing, even with the cbo has said about a risk a recession, with the democrats be willing to let the tax cuts expire other than those over 250? if the republicans say all or nothing, will you -- >> that is what elections are all about. the fact is that middle income people are more of a sacrifice than they need to bear if the economy is not doing well. so the deficit is important. it drives what we do. the cbo insists upon that. that is our mantra, to reduce the debt, to pay as you go. but the fact is that the economy -- taking away the
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middle class tax cuts is not a good idea. why go there when we can go to subsidies for big oil, closing loopholes and the rest of that? >> how closely informed were you kept during the president's negotiations with john boehner in 2011? and with the free-market were discussing, something the democrats would be comfortable pursuing in 2013 if they win the majority? >> very closely. our house democratic caucus stood by the president and we said we want -- we support you and the grant agreement, whatever it was called -- what was it called? >> the grand bargain. >> the grand bargain -- i don't like the word bargain because someone will have a problem with it -- but the grand bargain, just go for it. it is absolutely essential. we don't like some of the particulars, but that is what a bargain is about. we could have cut the deficit by $4 trillion -- $4 trillion.
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so with an opportunity to go to that place, everybody had to give up something and house democrats were cleared to be president. when this all came to be and the president said to me into harry reid, ok, we are not getting any more revenue. it will just be the assumption of the expiration of the bush tax cuts for the high-end, what will your caucuses do about it? we both said just go for it. with the full faith and credit of the united states at stake, $4 trillion in deficit reduction, that is something we cannot -- we support you. he was going to go to that place. and we said we will support you in that. he went back, agreed to that,
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and they walked away from the table. i don't care how many times they tell you the president didn't, it is just not a fact. >> the greatest economic growth and job creation, if there is a democratic house in 2013, would you insist that any long-term debt of the deal be coupled with short-term and more immediate measures to try to accelerate economic growth? >> some of the economic growth is what will reduce the deficit. what we said to our members when they were going to win super committee or another, deficit- reduction, whatever it happened to be, we trust your judgment. you go to the table. we trust your judgment. you know the values of our caucus. but bill with growth. start with growth and then make a determination of what role brevity makes and the role that investment makes. nothing brings more money to the
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treasury -- nothing -- then the investment, then the education of the american people. early childhood to lifetime learning. if you're going to cut education, that will not reduce the deficit. you have to weigh the investment in the revenue. the republicans believe that growth comes from the need tax cuts to the high end and it will trickle down. and if it does, that is good. and if it, that is the free market and so be it. that did not work in the bush years. that is what helped guinness in the situation we are in. that is a near depression -- that is what helped us get in the situation we are in. that is a near depression. but that is not the path. the path is to come together, have -- find your common ground to create growth and some of the growth talks about investment -- for example, when president
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obama became president, he made a speech on the steps of the capital. everybody knows. he took a bold action, very patient about job creation and the education of the american people for the 21st century. one week and one day after that speech, they had to pass the recovery act. which by the cbo estimates, it helped create a million jobs. the auto rescue, these things require investment, but they created growth. >> many of the investments you're talking about, education, science, research, they are consequential in terms of the long-range growth trajectory. but in terms of where the economy is right now, if there is a democratic majority in 2013, would you pursue measures designed for short-term and immediate stimulus. >> i think the president has made it clear that the republicans have obstructed him
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in every turn and the american jobs at is anemia path to job growth. some of that contains what we call the abc. a, making it in america, stop the erosion of our manufacturing and technological base. b, -- c, community, the education of our children and the public role to encourage the private sector to succeed. that is largely a part of the president's american jobs that. he was stopped at every turn by the republicans. >> have you seen anything further beyond the american jobs that? does the american -- does the
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democratic congress want to pursue and more fundamental tax reform that will change the entire system? >> i think there is bipartisan agreement that we need to put the full tax code on the table and say, if we do this and this, we can lower the rate. but we don't want to say that we will change the tax code that will be revenue neutral. no, we need revenue to grow our economy and to reduce the deficit. the idea that loopholes has to be closed, it is about which one is really do -- tax credits for wind and solar, that is job- creating. subsidies for big oil so they can make a trillion dollars, i
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don't think so. so we have to have that debate. >> the president recently said that he thought he could do immigration reform, comprehensive immigration reform. democratic in the hous house take up that issue in 2009 and 2010? >> we did. we passed the dream that. -- the dream act. it got the majority of votes, but the republicans in the senate kept it from getting the votes it needed. comprehensive immigration reform has to be done in a bipartisan way.
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governor romney, at his acceptance speech, started off with immigration and how wonderful it was to have immigrants in our country and that we are all immigrants, and indeed we are, except for our precious native americans. but this is a governor who says the port 12 million people in our country. that is not a solution. yes, we have to do immigration reform. president george w. bush understood this. he knew this issue very well. in his head and in his heart, he knew what was the right thing. he could not persuade the members of his own party to do it. >> is there a commitment that, if there is a democratic majority, a bill that would address the status of the 11
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million people who are believed to be year undocumented -- is there a commitment that you would bring a bill to bring the status to the floor in the next four years to a democratic majority? >> we have to do it. we have to build bipartisan support to do it so the bill will pass in the house and the senate and to be signed by the president of the united states. here is what i think we have to do. ok, we win, you're ready for that? get used to it. [laughter] we go win, first day, you know what we did in our first 100 hours before and that was with president bush as president. we were in a bipartisan way with him and got a lot of compliments -- a lot accomplished. so we go win, the first bill, jobs, jobs, jobs. similar to the american jobs at that the president has advocated.
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next, all has to be geared to creating growth and reducing the deficit. the other thing we have to do is change the political system. i have issued a bear -- -- i issued a dare, disclose. amend the constitution to overturn citizens united. and elect people -- i don't care if they're democrats or republicans -- who will take back our democracy, a government of the many and not government of the money. we have to do immigration reform. that would be a very high priority for us. we hope to do all of that in a bipartisan way in a news
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administration and the new congress. this is very important to restore the public's confidence in government. what do we need all of this endless fundraising and analysts campaigning for? let's get right down to what the american people expect and deserve, what our founders sacrifice for, what our troops fought to protect, our freedom, and what our children aspire to. >> you certainly have given the press something to do. thank you for joining us today. we appreciate all of your time. [applause] we will be joined by jessica yelolin. and gene sperling he was deputy director of the national economic council under
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president clinton and counselor to tim geithner. he is watching the detroit tigers when he is not watching the presidential race. gene and jessica thank you for being here. thank you for joining us. as we were discussing, this will be a very unusual transition regardless of who wins. let's say president obama is reelected. if the republicans insist on extending the entire bush tax cuts, would the president be willing to let the entire tax cut expired?
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>> i think the important thing to understand is that we think the time after the election is important. can we come together and make progress and a broad best -- broadbased agreement. this should be done in a way to protect the vulnerable. we need to do something and we need to come together and that meant there is a lot of people who understand that is the case. -- i think we should be looking at the post- election period as an
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opportunity. there is a gun to our heads and we need that as a country to make both sides calm and compromise. i believe the number one reason we have not been able to have that type of compromise is that a portion of the republican leadership and certainly the current republican vice- presidential nominee and house budget committee chairman have stuck to the most extreme of extreme fiscal positions which is, for either someone to say that all of the deficit reduction should come from revenue or all of it should come from spending cuts. that is not something better any independent bipartisan commission group of experts agree on. i think we need to use this moment to bring everyone together. i don't think we will come to the moment you are mentioning. i just don't believe that, at the end of the day, republicans will be willing to tell the country that they are so committed to not having one
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penny of revenues from high income americans that they are willing to raise taxes $3,000 per year on all middle-class families. i don't think we will get to that theme this sounds like the same discussion we were having last summer. >> i just interviewed john boehner about this and the president for a new documentary. >> who did that? >> speaker boehner said he was willing to increase revenue by $800 billion and he said the president blew up the deal. the president's crofton said that was not the case. he said the speaker walked away. how are these two men going to work together? what will be any different this time? >> one has to hope that in this
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environment after the election, with the threat of sequestered and the threat of tax expiration that you would be in the best situation to, i hope, come to a more reasonable bargain than we saw from the republicans last year. i don't necessarily expect speaker boehner to say something different. how can he win the republican nominee is out there saying he would not accept a deal that was $10 of spending cuts to $1 of revenue. you have a republican nominee out there with a proposal that proposes $12 million in tax relief to the well off. this is not a situation where i would expect this to be the moment where you would see that movement. i am more confident with the reelection of president obama
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that people will realize they need to compromise. in terms of speaker boehner, i give him credit personally. he came to the table and was willing to work on revenues and i give him credit for that and i always will. there are two things that are just wrong -- his account of what happens is just wrong. this goes to the conversation you had with nancy pelosi -- what was going on there is that president obama was coming to the leadership and giving them hard truths and saying this is the deal we will have to take. on the republican side, i don't think speaker boehenr was able to do that and every single time we got close, they just walked away. have you ever heard of a negotiation where one side makes an offer and the other side back.getcalls i always say i would never want
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to date these guys. they never call and said they want to see other people. they just don't come back twice in a row. you don't have to be balanced on that. it is an indisputable fact that president obama said to john boehner here is an agreement and i believe we can do better. if you cannot do that, let's come back and figure out how we can get a better deal. it is not disputable that speaker boehner never called the president backed. >> there is even more concerned about the economic recovery and job growth. if president obama is reelected, is there an agenda to accelerate job growth that goes beyond what has been put on the table in the american jobs growth? what else do you think he would proceed to get the economy moving faster? >> we look at an economic
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agenda for a second term or after this election -- we look for an overall economic strategy and you have to look at three different parts of it. one is the certainty that comes from a long-term fiscal deal that would bring our debt and deficit down as a percentage of gdp. number two, you have enough momentum so that our recovery can strengthen and job growth can strengthen. we don't want to follow the model of those who would unnecessarily slow growth and slow job growth right now. you don't have to do it that way. you can put together a 10-year package that has significant debits of reductions but is done in an intelligent way that makes sure you are giving more momentum at the beginning but as
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part of a long-term package. this way people are locking in the savings to bring the deficit down. the third part is the competitiveness agenda. i was at an event with the business community and one place i believe they are more in line with president obama is that there are areas like infrastructure, community colleges, stem education, manufacturing where we have to do more and we have to be able to invest more. an intelligent plan puts together all three of those. what has been discouraging about the rise in budget and the run the budget is that they so harshly cut -- the ryan/romney budget is that they cut some things so harshly. if you are cutting so deeply on
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domestic discretionary spending to avoid raising a penny on revenues for the well off, your delivering a serious setback of productivity and growth agenda that many in the business community don't support. >> when you say more momentum at the beginning, is that the american jobs act or would you envision something beyond that, something that would be another round of stimulus? >> if you are designing an intelligent economic strategy, you want long-term fiscal discipline. you do not want to have a plan that has so much contraction at the beginning that independent macro economists would argue it would hurt jobs. when you were doing deficit reduction, you want to base it in an intelligent way that gives the economy's strength and i think there are several things we put forward in the american jobs act that are mystifying
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that they did not support. this president put together this act cutting payroll taxes in half for small businesses. you hear about small businesses and entrepreneurs. they would not take that up. the president called for $30 billion in preventing lay offs. this is the only recovery in memory in which you have a dramatic loss of jobs at the state and local levels. the ronald reagan recovery in 1984 had significant increases in state and local jobs but it is part of our long term agenda. you go deeper -- you hear people at the republican invention -- convention salic concerned about jobs but they're working on governors to cut back jobs. how is that good for our long term? you could have more of the small business support for hiring. you could accelerate
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infrastructure investment which is good for our long-term competitiveness. that way you target many who are long-term unemployed, a construction workers were out of work, and you are doing it at the best possible time. i don't think there will be a better time to put construction workers back to work rebuilding our country. on the teacher layoffs, there is broad support that americans don't understand how hiring science and math teachers is a good way to heal from this deep recession. >> if the president is reelected, one way to revert to sequestration and a government shutdown is to create some kind of framework for a deal on tax reform that would be worked out later on. they will have a broad agenda to do this later. what will that look like and is that likely? >> bett is a good question and i don't think i or anybody else
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can see exactly what progress would look like in a technical legislative way after november. if there is a will, there are several ways. you could have an overall agreement that understands that there were -- we will include revenues for those who are most well off as part of the package when you do entitlement reform. you could pass specifics. >> before the end of the year? >> you could or you could pass frameworks -- in 1997, jack lew and i were part of the balanced budget agreement where we came up with a detailed plan deadlocked both parties in. it was a memorandum on understanding, mou. what has blocked this from happening is an ideological resistance to having the type of
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balanced plan, shared sacrifice, revenue and entitlements that as part of every budget agreement is how we had a social security agreement in 1983 and have you had a budget agreement in 1990 and have you dealt with a deficit reduction in the 1990's under president clinton. even prime minister camera on and my friend as chancellor osborn who are the poster boys for fiscal austerity -- he always reminds me that their plan has $3 of spending cuts for every dollar of revenue. it is about the exact same as president obama. it is proposing. it is only extremism and the ideological rigidity of those who are suggesting that we should do this all on the spending side. if we can break through that resistance, there are a lot of
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ways to make progress. the idea that president obama is going to agree to these -- to a harsher budget, harsher than newt gingrich or dick armey, one that cuts medicaid by 1/3 that you would expect the kaiser foundation estimates it would affect 19 million people. middle-class families have a child with disabilities like optimism or down's syndrome, middle-class families who have someone in a nursing on, that 19 million people in these categories lose their coverage. why do they have such a harsh budget? because they have to bring the deficit down? once they move away from that, there are many ways you could work something out in the lame- duck session that could avoid sequestration or the other
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things people are worried about like the fiscal cliff and this president has shown that he is willing to work in good faith on that compromise. >> you're talking about ideological rigidity -- one things republicans want is changes in the structures of the entitlement programs. one flashpoint is paul ryan and the idea of premium support for medicare. there must be a flicker of the interest in democrats on that alice rivlin has endorsed the idea. it is not that different than your health care reform approach where you give people subsidies to go into exchanges but it has a public auction. is that something you think is completely off the table as a long-term reform at -- if the president is reelected of -- or could that be part of a broader package of the prayer -- republicans can get in other
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areas? >> i have not seen a design of this plan that is viable. when the congressional budget office looked at the ryan plan, the voucher plan, they did a series of analyses and you will hear democrats and the president saying in the first year seniors would take 64 months -- would pay $6,400 more. for '64 hundred dollars more out of a seniors pocket, which is a huge hit to their financial security, how much deficit savings did this cbo say you would get? $600. in other words, that plan was essentially saying that we as a country will spend more, seniors will spend more and they will spend more to bear the cost of higher administrative costs by the private sector and they
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will pay $6,400 more to lower the deficit. one of the tests we should have for health care is that we should be trying to bring down not just the deficit but overall health spending, a strategy to help the deficit a little but does it by increasing dramatically the cost seniors pay and the cost we as a country pay is not viable. my second concern is what economists call the death spiral. that is the notion that in insurance, if you allow a situation where people can select the healthiest and the young guys, the traditional medicare pool becomes more expensive. as a becomes more expensive, more of a healthier younger people are forced by the high cost to go into private sector plans and that is the debt spiral.
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nobody has been able to show that you could just for that kind of risk selection in a way to deal with that. those of us who understand, there needs to be serious measures taken on medicare. higher income medicare beneficiaries should pay higher fees in the future and we have to make some tough choices but we should be very careful, when your top and get something that has the ability to unravel fundamental basic medicare guarantees, i believe the premium support program that mitt romney and paul ryan have put forth put at risk medicare as we know it and there is a real likelihood there be that kind of death spiral. it forces more and more of the
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world into private plans and i don't think any budget to support that as long as that is what independent analysis shows. >> we will have to leave their but thank you for joining us. we will have one more panel for you and i will have major garrett come up to talk about environment in which some of these ideas will be considered in 2013. [applause] we will move some chairs around host: calle[captioning performed by national captioning institute] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2012] show?s chess yellin's >> re-airs this weekend. >> the power and decisions would be made assuming obama is
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reelected -- keep the microphone close to your mouth. at national journal, keep your mouth close to the microphone. we always take cues from the much more elegant atlantic colleagues. each microphone has different tape like a wine glass at a party. are you sure that president obama will be reelected in what is the basis for that and what is the most important thing his re-election will result? there was conversation before that this election will result some issues that have been dividing the country for some time. what is your level of competence and why and what is the biggest issue if he gets reelected that he will result or settle? >> thank you so much for having me here this afternoon.
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it is a pleasure to be here. my level of sureties around the president's reelection -- as i said here and internationally, it will be an extremely tight election. i believe the president will ultimately win but it will be down to the bitter end. it is a few counties of a few districts and a few states that will matter. the path to re-election for the president -- he has more abbas to re-election then governor romney has. that contributes to my level of confidence in a very tight election. in terms of what will result, i have heard before that some people have talked about this being a watershed moment, that will result many things. i don't believe that. i believe that the distinctions are quite clear but at the same time, i think the nation will continue to struggle with some
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very serious questions. it will assure us of four years more of the president to continue to move the country forward for the economy we are starting to see improved and the recovery taking place and the kinds of investment and kind of path to deficit reduction and some clarity around a movement around tax reform. i think that allows us to continue that path forward. as opposed to plans that governor romney have put forward that to not provide the kind of clarity for us. >> i agree with everything that was just said and i watched the tea party convention last week were they invited a few republicans and i think that helped crystallize a lot of people's opinions. it will show in the polls after this thing is done later today.
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i think the president is poised to be a great second term president. you look at the presidency of every two-term president and they always have to learn some number of lessons in the first four years particularly if they were going to redouble their efforts and of they were going to be a better president. speaker nancy pelosi's argument that she will get close to 25 in the house is compelling. she has to get close for four or five people to wake up and do the right thing. this diamond -- this president has demonstrated a willingness to tackle the long-term debt problem of thenited states. i think he is prepared to do that and i think he is prepared to push for a plan it would make some amount of progress in this election.
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i assume he will be a great second term president. >> i agree with melanie, i think the election will be closed but i think the president will get reelected because i don't think this country wants to go back to the policies that are being advocated by romney/ryan ticket to a place where we are reducing taxes on wealthy people and increasing taxes on middle- class. this opens us up to the same abuses that got us into the financial crisis that led to this recession that we are still climbing out of. i don't think women want to go back to replace or access to contraceptives and health care choices is something that is problematic, where our environment is at risk because we don't have an energy policy that recognizes the need to invest in clean alternative sources of energy.
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i don't think the country wants to go back to that place. i think when the president is reelected, what the most critical imperatives is to deal with the debt and deficit. i think there are a lot of people, a lot of businesses and families who are sitting on the sideline waiting to consume and in the case of businesses to invest because they don't know what is coming in terms of tax policy and the deficit and it is critical for us to do with that issue. >> centaur, se --nator, new hampshire is a swing state. what will be pivotal? >> i think the economy is clearly the major issue in this election. hearing what the specific proposals are that both president obama and governor romney and his running mate, paul ryan, are laying out their
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will be the distinguishing factor. we are not hearing any specifics romney/ryan ticket. we did not get an last week at the convention and the people find what they're proposing, there will not like that as an alternative. >> i agree with the other panelists,- ryan selection change this election dramatically. this is no longer just about whether you're mad about the last four years or not. i am very optimistic -- i will give you a quick example on the student loan issue -- i was working that with many others in the house and it was dead in the water until the president barnstormed in the country. suddenly, you saw the republicans fall like dominoes
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starting with mitt romney, speaker john boehner, all who have been stonewalling this issue. the president gave an interview couple of days ago where he talked about how he would approach the second term. he recognized he's got to flex its muscle with public opinion and get out there and communicate more than he did in the first term. the student loan issue is an example where it worked. he took the case of the people and i think that will work for budget issues, fiscal issues, energy issues. i think it will be a great second term. >> the president also said he believes the fever will break, meaning the republican opposition is not a fever, it is more an ideology. do you see how this will play out? do you think they should let the
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bush tax cuts and expire so republicans will say they are letting taxes increase in any way? >> i think that favre will break is that the reality of who was president for the next four years will be evident on november 2. there is a belief on the other side does this guy will be gone and why should we deal with him? "isn't that suggesting that what their philosophy is is not a true philosophy? aren't they just playing politics? can you believe what they believe? >> mitch mcconnell made that clear from day one. >> i actually hope that what we will see is people coming together to reach some sort of agreement before we get to the next congress. i think it will be very hard in
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the lame-duck session to work out all the details of what that might be. we might see an extension that would allow congress some time to put together the specifics of tax reform and a deficit deal. more and more i am hearing this in the senate, on both sides of the aisle, there is a realization that this is an issue we have to deal with and we have to be serious about it. anybody who has looked at the budget understands that in order to deal with the debt and deficit we are facing, you cannot just do it on the spending side. you have to do it on the revenue side. you have to look at the defense side and the domestic budget and you have to look at mandatory programs. anybody who is serious acknowledges that >> i think it is a mixture of philosophy and politics. i think there is a number of tea
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party republicans that are essentially holding most of the republican party hostage. i think a decision has to be made as to whether or not the majority will break free. i believe that john boehner, who has cut deals before, may have been willing to cut a deal. i don't think he was willing to go back to the rest of his caucus to sell that. people are always looking over their shoulder and wondering what will happen in their primary. they see it play out again and again. will the exogenous shocks that will hit our country, will people pay attention to the fact that we will send our economy over a cliff once again if we
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don't deal with the issue of sequestration, if we don't deal with the tax cuts, if we are not going to be willing to invest in the things that will help our economy grow, if we are not going to do the kinds of things that necessary in the immediate future to help grow our economy and whether or not people will pay attention to that or whether they will be held hostage to a minority of people who have taken all kinds of pledges that do not make any sense. no economist out there, even across the ideological lines, believes we can do this without some level of revenue and without some level of spending cuts that is the mixture. >> i think it is politics. alln't think the tea party believes what the republicans are saying and i don't think republicans are going along with everything but they feel trapped because they will lose the next primary and be
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challenged. something has to give. i think we will see movement. i think the president will be reelected and i don't know if we pick up 25 seats are 18 seats are 15 seats. a bunch of them will lose. some of them are substantially behind as we look at the november election. we have to get through the next three days and see what the polls do in the next few days after that but i think we will see some movement. i am a governor. we have to balance our budget every single year. it is not an option and we can do it. i inherited a state with a $3.6 billion deficit. 18 months later, we are showing $100 million in the bank. it can be done. it is painful and it takes explanation and it takes a commitment to communicating what you're doing and why you're doing it and what the long-term
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consequences are but it should be done. >> gene laid a foundation for this idea and i wonder if you think it is possible -- he did not say specifically that the lame-duck session might produce something along the lines of a grand bargain. we assumed in tampa that mitt romney would be elected at what would he do as new president. his top advisers told us in tampa that he would want no huge action during the lame duck session from congress. he would extend the existing policies for seven months so he could study the effect. gene sperling suggested that the lame-duck session might be time to a grand bargain. what do you think is more likely?
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you have a sense of what people are anticipating. there may be 22 legislative days in the lame-duck session. what can be done? will would be doing something the kids the can down the road? >> i have said that i am only willing to goal with something that kicks the can down road if it includes some sort of agreement for being able to solve the problem. i think that is a more likely scenario that one that suggests we will have all wrapped up. i think that it's difficult to do. >> one possible caveat i would add is that of control changes in the house to the democrats, you could make an argument to
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allow a new majority to take place. having said that, if the structure of the house and the white house is the same, there is no excuse to kick the can down the road. we really need -- there is overlap. if you look at the paul ryan budget and the obama budget, there is no overlap of different areas where we can make real progress. graham rudman sequestration and that was passed in 1985 took seven years before they finally completed that sequestration. people should remember that. if we can solve the sequestration, great but historically, it takes some time
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for the specifics to digest and the ideas to change the structure of the budget. >> i hope we don't enter into an agreement that we will shoot our own dog because people don't agree with us in seven months. that is the situation we're in now. we are going to do damage to ourselves that you don't agree to do what we want. that is the outline of what the agreement is. we have a big military industrial complex in connecticut. you can buy a submarine or a jet engine in connecticut. we cannot have those kind of bargains again. we're better off to do nothing than to do something. to shoot ourselves in the foot and delay that outcome does not make sense. we thought 18 months was enough time to straighten everything out. >> is there a confidence issue
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that will affect the election? the debt issue will have to be addressed either now or early into -- 2014. -- 2004 -- 2013. >> the president gets reelected all the states that have income- tax will see a large increase in revenue in the month of december. there will be a whole bunch of people running around the country trying to identify their income in the current fiscal year as opposed the next fiscal year. states with an income such as mine will do pretty well. behaviors' get changed by elections and they get change pretty quickly. we all know we can do this. the president offered a plan to do this. people might want to deny it.
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the president offered a plan and it was pushed away. i think the senator and congressman have made a compelling argument why this will happen and i believe it will happen. don bachus into a corner any further. let's not hurt ourselves. >> you have a unique perspective being the head of the defense policy committee. you were in the middle of these discussions and trying to find a legislative ban within which to create compromises. do you think the lame-duck session is where the conversation can be had on a temporary solution or that might be the cauldron in which to put together a grand bargain? >> i think it can happen. i have worked in the house and
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the senate and i have worked in the white house. for all of us here, and for others in the audience, i see for what his colleagues out there, when there is the smell of jet fuel in the air, meeting christmas, meaning august recess -- there are these exotic and thus jobs that exist there because whether or not it does or does not happen likes sequestration or the expiration of the tax cuts, it will have an affect on the market and our economy. that combination of things can lead to serious negotiations for the region as critic for the reasons that the governor mentioned. there are -- the ideas are out there. we came close last time and it is possible in the -- even in a short period time to get this done and worked out. unless we want to dip our economy into a very dire place, i think people need to get busy with the plan. we can work for this and the lame duck session.
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>> i don't think we have that kind of time given the grid lock and the fact this issue plays into a lot of politics, do you think there's a possibility this congress could do immigration reform? >> on january 1- >>no, next year. say it is a republican house and a democratic senate and the president is reelected. >> if they can talk about it, the answer is yes. >> i agree. people will have walked away from iigration reform will be willing to come back after the election. >> i think it is true we have not reformed education sufficiently to produce the product we need. we need to begin by saying that when you get a graduate degree, no matter what country you come from, you get a green card and
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that is an easy place to start. i would urge the members of congress to do it that way and back up on the other issues with ourthornier. among the business community, there is a set consensus that we need more engineers. where can we get doctors? i know where it come from and i know now which degrees it to come with. >> i believe it can. the elements are there to get it done. you mentioned the business community -- in terms of the issues of the undocumented, people understand their businesses and communities are working of an economic engine that includes people who are not documented. the agricultural committee, look h2a program and farmers of his crops are sitting in the field and they are literally not
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kidding picked me this to happen. the high-skilled issue was getting pounded by the business community. we did as much as we possibly could administratively on high school but there is only so much that can be done legislatively. are the policies going to allow republicans to come to the table including those who supported these issues before but rescinded their cosponsor ship going forward? i think that will be an issue of pressure. there is the executive action that was taken with the dream action that can add up to a deal being cut. it sits on the altar of politics. >> i want to fax it just a cutyellin and the --jessica yellin and the rest of the panel. >> thanks to major derek for leave the conversation. we appreciate you being here as well as our viewers on c-span.
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a big thanks to back of america for supporting this program, thank you very much, enjoy the rest of your day. [applause] [captioning performed by national captioning institute] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2012] >> americans have been patient and supportive as president in good faith of the time has come to turn the page. the time has come for us to put the disappointment of the last four years behind us, to put aside the divisiveness and the recriminations, to forget what might have been and look ahead to what can be. now's the time to restore the promise of america. [applause] many americans have given up on this president that they have never thought about giving up, not on themselves, not on each other, and not on america. what we see in the country today is not complicated or profound.
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it doesn't take a government commission to tell us what america needs. america needs jobs, lots of jobs. [applause] >> know this america, our problems can be solved, the challenges can be met. but that we offer may be harder but at least it will get us to a better place and i am asking you to choose that future. i am asking you to rally around a set of goals for your country, goals of manufacturing, energy, education, national security, and the deficit, or real achievable plans that will lead to new jobs, more opportunity, and rebuild the economy on a stronger foundation. that is what we can do in the next four years and that is why i am running for a second term as president of the united states. [applause] >> find in the speech from the democratic and republican conventions on line at the cspan video library.
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>> i want c-span -- i watch c- span and the book portion because i know it is important to be knowledgeable about what is going on in the world. i think that cspan gives the most information about what is going on on a specific subject. a lot of television does not do that. >> hillary pate watches c-span on comcast. cspan was greeted by cable companies in 1979 and brought to you as a public service by your cable providers. >> several democrats discuss have their cordoning their congressional campaign efforts. the heads of the democratic conventional -- the democratic campaign committee and the senate campaign committee talk.
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this was hosted by the national journal, atlantic monthly, and cbs news. >> guy cecil and robbie mook, the two guys who follow house and senate races. welcome to both of you. i want to start up for the same question i asked before, what is the national mood for democratic candidates? >> from the house perspective, august has been an abysmal month for republicans. i keep saying that mitt romney has been our best to honor in this campaign, he gave us paul ryan and that was something no money could buy. we absolutely have momentum right now between the paul ryan nomination which nationalized the medicare issue and the talks
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about the cuts to medicare while giving tax breaks to millionaires, people know you're talking about. the to we haddd akin to remind of the country that this is a party that wants to redefine race and has extreme views. that will be helpful to us and some of the district's. we had republicans gallivanting in the sea of galilee and their branches so toxic at this point. the difference between our two convention speaks volumes. there are 27 democratic house members speaking at this convention. the republicans, you did not see these guys anywhere. it is clear and mitt romney was not anywhere in sight. our guys have momentum and we are doing very good in the polls. >> we have taken along view.
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we have 23 democratic seats to defend, 10 republican seats on the other side and most of the prognosticators completely wrote us off and said we should try to defend as many of our seats as possible and hope for the best. over the course of time, despite the fact outside groups have spent over $75 million against democratic sitting candidates around the country, we're in a better place today than we have been at any point in the cycle. the quality of the candidates we have running around the country, people did not expect. south dakota is a prime example. when you look around the country, at the beginning of a cycle, most people wrote articles about how the tea party was on decline -- in decline. what we have seen the last couple of months is that the tea party is as active out -- as
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ever but it is operating in a slightly durrell igwe. you don't have incumbent candidates running against insurgent candidates. the longtime supporter of comprehensive and the christian reform said he was no longer in favor the next day. the representative in montana said he did not believe in welfare. i think it is moving in our direction but we expected very close election and we expect the majority in either direction to be remarkably close. >> you took a tea party candidate and pointed out to women why this candid was out of the mainstream like in the case so todd akin. >> i think there are races were
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that model sets better. in virginia, it has been a tight election state. there were 75 public polls and all but 10 of them have been within the margin of error . when you look at independent women in the suburbs of washington d.c. and richmond, these folks will be turned off, not just by the economic model but also george allen is in favor of outlying choice -- outlawing choice. reaching out to women and maximizing our vote with that african-americans and continued to grow our party withstanding voters will be key for the presidential but the senate races. >> other than virginia? >> that is the most solid example but you look at the suburbs of st. louis, in
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missouri, and the suburbs of kansas city. i would throw in the suburbs of indianapolis. the movement in the race fromevan bayh is almost entirely white, independent women in the suburbs of indianapolis. i think we have a candidate who could return to those folks in a meaningful way. >> we did the same panel down in tampa where your counterpart suggested the redistricting means republicans could pick up seats in the house. nancy pelosi says democrats will pick up 27 seats in the house. where did you see the house landscape? >> if guy harrison wants to set the expectation, that's fine. he is wrong. the house majority is in striking distance.
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we have momentum, we have the money, we have the coverage we did not have last cycle. there are 56 districts on the map now that were won by president obama that are either controlled by republican or are a new open seat from redistricting. there are new opportunities in california and illinois and the highest concentration of our battleground states are in the orphans states like california, illinois, new york and the president is doing well in florida. we feel we have terrific odds right now. john boehner himself said he thinks there's a likelihood that they will lose the house. i think it is 50/50. they can say all they want about picking up the pieces but the map does not support that. >> there are states that are
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not presidential battle grounds. a lot of money is not being spent on television ads. the republicans have given the rnc money. the dnc is not. how much as it -- how much of a factor is that? >> the president has been an outstanding help to all our candidates. we have been working for months to build a sophisticated turnout operation in california, illinois, and new york. our volunteers are doing s -- an outstanding job. i have, but is that with everything we need. >> i would take the fact that president obama would win by such a wide margin in certain states because of the turnout operation. >> give this a couple of races
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or maybe one were the ryan people have put something in play. to us some examples of how this has changed things. >> we have 50 candidates in our program in markey races. -- in marquis races. are independent expenditure just went up today. with an ad that's this of the renamedryan. specifically names ryan. this is incredibly powerful and would not be spending money in all but the market unless we really believe that and it worked. >> the president has been trying to brand that ryan for two years.
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when ryan was picked, nobody knew who we was. our voters going to see if ryan and his policies are connected? >> we need some time to have this debate. he was only nominated a few weeks ago. the key argument in this race is people need to understand that they're actually was a plan. what we found in the cycle is that people did not believe this was really possible. people did not believe this could be possible and now they do. what we need to reveal is the choice and they recover -- requiring seniors to pay more for their medicare but they protected tax breaks for people like mitt romney so he pays less than the rest of us. that is the key contrast. >> so much of the focus of the
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ryan plan is on medicare and rightfully so. it is not just about medicare. it does permanent damage to pell grants. it does permanent damage to a whole host of a middle-class issues. we have a way of segregating medicare into one bucket and economic issues into another and pell grants into another. and voters, those are all important issues. when you look at any independent poll, education and of being one of the top two or three issues among hispanic voters. what rmoney and ryan plan does is determinant -- as does permanent damage. and a host of races around the country, we're not only focused on medicare by really focused in
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on what educational opportunities are there for middle-class families. >> your briefing reporters and you said there was a shocking number of races within single digits. there is at least 16 races you call competitive. what is going on here? why are these so close? >> it is a very m bigap and extensive. i think there is a couple of things they're happening. we have over-learn some of the lessons from 2006 and 2008 and 2010. this election is the not pay wave election. this is still a margin of error rates. it will stay that way throughout the course of the election cycle.
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i think you see that mirrored in a number of senate races. most senate races have real resources to differentiate themselves from the presidential race. there are a lot of red states where the president is expected to lose by 18 points. where democrats are currently leading. i mentioned north dakota -- about eight weeks ago, we pulled north dakota and the president was down. four routes -- four weeks later, we polled again and the president was down 17. . our candidates are grounded in their state. they are spending millions of dollars trying to convince voters that there is a caricature of barack obama. i think it will be a difficult
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for the republican party to convince voters. i think it is a case of diminishing returns that karl rove and crossroads are making the kids as an opening to ground their candidates. >> let's talk about some of the opportunities the democrats have this year to win over republicans. there are four seats on the table, mass., arizona's and others. we have heard some grumbling. >> if i spent time listening to grumbling about campaigns are paying attention to public polls, i would be a very busy
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person. in march of last year, while i was meeting with state reporters and many activists -- they said maybe you should spend your money making sure john tesla wins . we are in august of the election year. this is the only race in the there is a lot of attention all this race. two reasons why i am optimistic 800,000 were people will turn out in this election that turned out in the presidential and especially if the election that scott brown won. among the people who are undecided, therefore the president by a 3 or four to one
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margin. i do not care where church you guide -- truck you drive. scott brown is out of touch in massachusetts. the people do not believe voting with its mcconnell -- mitch mcconnell is in the direction. the race will move even further in elizabeth's direction. i am always excited to hear president clinton but i am excited for folks to get to hear elizabeth in an unfiltered way. >> i wanted to speak to you about baads. both party is basically saying the ads are a wash and it is getting to the point where there will be less effective. both sides have to put them on
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the air because no one wants to disarm. is that the case in down battle races where the air waves are not saturated? what is that picture like? >> if you enjoy the geico lizard, the aflac duck, you should turn off your television because you will not see them too much on the air. it is currently at the saturated market. that pushes more advertising online and you will see not only markets that but you will see online space fill up in a way it has not before. i also think it presents a challenge to us, how do we keep voters engaged? how do we capture their attention and there is two things. we have face-to-face
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conversations with people in an age where they are fewer and i think it is important that we continually present voters with new information. this is where i think the republicans by continuing -- all their ads look and sound the same. 97% medicare, stimulus, barack obama, testing with cocaine, had 9% and earmarks, barack obama. they have been running about. chairman brown leaves and there is a diminishing return on the argument. compare that to the new integration that is provided to voters in the ohio race where voters are learning about josh mandell. he got into office, hired a 26-
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year-old and had to send the same staffers to basic finance classes because he had no background in finance or debt management. it is important to us that we provide voters with a compelling information about our candidates. something tells me we have more to say. not only about the democrats but sharing with voters the truth about our republican opponents. >> let's plan of something, the house races sometimes have a harder time differentiating from the presidential contest. how do you advise your campaigns to build a brand? >> we have a lot of these orphans states where canada is have the ability to cut her more. we have been pushing yarkand it's you cut through. our independent expenditure released and that this morning.
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there is a woman talking about her experience with cancer and how the policy would have made it hard for urge to get the treatmt she needed. it is important to have real people talking about the impact of these votes on their lives. i would also say the republicans are using their 2010 playbook and is now working. if you look at the special election in arizona where they live -- the airwaves were free for us, general giffords was omnipresent but the ads were about issues. the republicans went back to their playbook. obama policies, cap and trade. the early part of that campaign was back and forth. he brought his grandfather and said he loved it even though he said he wanted to end it. we have among record with boats, we have the proof and so i am
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very confident based on what we've seen in the special elections and the add testing, the arguments are stronger but we need to keep it simple and consistent. we need to keep a real and that is having real people talk about the issues. >> which races are we not talking about that we will be surprised by on election day? >> two interesting races. she had arrived campaign last time, there are six polls that have come out showing her and there has not been a single public poll that has shown [inaudible] winning the race. a lot of that is swinging in our direction because of the tea party extremism in the state legislature. the other when -- other one is verne buchanan. he is being investigated and he
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had deposition schedule than he did not show up. a few weeks and take -- from today he has another one. he continues to cancel his tv time. maybe he is busy dealing with lawyers. that is one to watch. he is in a lot of trouble. >> let's open up to questions here from the audience. one back here. if you do not mind identifying that would be fantastic. >> the is think there is any effect of in wisconsin -- you always talk about presidential coattails. is there potential for, democratic candidates in wisconsin, maybe the incumbents get a boost from tommy thompson or in the john tierney in
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massachusetts. with the pie gets help from scott brown. >> in the tierney instance, mass. as a democratic state. -- massachusetts is a democratic state. i think as guy has been saying, the voters in massachusetts will come home and i and tyranny -- case [inaudible] in wisconsin, the nrcc and sean duffy are playing. we have not seen coattails from
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that. >> anybody else? a question for both of you. illinois has got 20% of this week -- of the seats that could switch. maybe go the democratic way. all five of those, we are winning those numbers and i would like you to talk about rich carmona and his race. >> arizona is one of the four states where we feel like we could pick up a democratic seat. one of the two that is nontraditional and it is due in large part to the power of rich
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and his story. he was raised in new york, spent most of his childhood homeless or in subsidized housing. both parents struggle with addiction. he dropped dead of high school and joined the military where he won two purple hearts and a silver star. he came back and got accepted into one college, bronx community college which provided him with a full ride. he went on -- he went from being homeless and a dropout to graduating first in his class in mid school. and becoming a deputy sheriff, being named one of the top cops in the country and was appointed to be surgeon general by george bush. and served for four years in the bush administration and is running as a democrat. his story transcends politics and is a powerful testament not
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just to our country but to the fortitude i think he will bring to the united states senate and is a sharp contrast with jeff has been in politics for a long time. he committed to a three-term limit as a member of the house of representatives and when he was running for his fourth term, he looked at the camera and said i guess i'm delighted. i. link this is a perfect contrast in a race where you need something special and you need something a little bit extra for the democrats to be successful. the testimony is a powerful example and i think puts us in a positive position in a place where a lot of folks did not give us a chance. most of the public polls have the race within four points. the one dynamic in the race is
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that there have not been any general election ads. jeff lake had primary which he won pretty handily. there is a lot of room for him to grow. we have been focused on registration and turnout hispanic voters in arizona. i think in the long run we will see the race stayed pretty much in a margin of error through the very end. >> talk about illinois. your best state for redistricting. >> we have a lot of opportunities there. joe walsh, the more he says, the better we do. robert dole is very endangered. that is the district where obama got 60% of the vote. his -- dole is in the 40's.
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it is a troubled sign. what is important about the tied races, where is the push coming from? this is barack obama's home state. i maintain the distress that are tied right now, they will get pushed over the edge. the other interesting one, the 13th district. he has not endorsed the republican nominee. but very competitive seats for us. the polling has been terrific. our spending is up there and the opponent of bobby shilling, the numbers will tighten up very quickly. >> thank you so much for being here. >> thank you. >> the national journal along with univision and abc news host
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of the discussion on the hispanic vote and the white rock collection wednesday. julian castro and the los angeles mayor talked about issues impacting the hispanic community and increasing voter turnout among latinos. this is over one hour. >> good afternoon and welcome. my name is ron brownstein. also a political analyst for abc and admire and friend of univision. we're here to talk about the democratic party in tomorrow's america. i do not have to tell the people in this room that we're living through the most profound
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demographic change in the united states. the melting pot era at the turn of the 20th-century. the 2010 census was a postcard from the future. wider presented for fifth of america's population. by 2000, it was 69%. in 2010 as fallen to 53.7. hispanics constitute one in seven americans. the greatest changes among the young. 47% of americans under 18 are non-white. we have the sense that after 2040 we're on track to be a majority minority nation. in the underage teen population we will be majority minority as soon as a few years after 20 -- 2020. a majority of the newborns in the u.s. were non-white.
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this change is not only deepening diversity in places that are accustomed to to it, it is spreading diversity to places that had not known very much of it in their history. from 2000 to 2010, a hispanic share increased in every state and accounted for majority of the population in 18 states and 40% in seven others. this is bringing new flavors to places we have deserted. i and timlin, iowa where all of us who cover politics have to spend our share of time, half the kids in the k-12 system are non-wide. this transition has not been as quick in the political area. the demography is leaving an impression. when bill clinton was elected, 12% was non-white. when barack obama was elected,
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74% of the vote cast by whites and 26% cast by non-whites. hispanics were 2% in 1992 and 9% in 2008. if white and minorities voted the same way as they did in 2008 but were present in proportions that were in 1992, john mccain, not barack obama would be seeking reelection. barack obama became the first nominee ever to lose whites by double digits and win the white house. he could lose them by more and still win. we're here to talk about the impact of these momentous changes on policy and politics in america. we have for years placed special
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emphasis on eliminating the implications of these trends. most recently through our next america website and supplements and i hope you'll take the opportunity to find that on our website. our friends at abc and univision are attuned to these changes and are watching enjoyed website to address the growing hispanic population in english and to talk about that, i want to turn over the podium to my colleague, jake tapper and a syndicated columnist and the most recognized female hispanic journalist not only in america but the americans as well. before gave -- i give you the mike, i envoy -- invite people
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to join us at #dnc. >> it is the pleasure and an honor to be year. to start out talking about the joint venture " we're thrilled that univision for this joint venture for several reasons. not only because we're working with such a professional group of journalists in the b.c. but this will give us an opportunity to reach that part of that is that a population that is either english-dominant or would like to hear what is going on around the world in a new language. as you said, his bags are very harsh a very young population. every 30 seconds, a young latina turns 18. the growth of the hispanic community has come from more than ever grants.
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it would be an opportunity to reach out to mainstream media. we know our issues and this is an opportunity for people out there to understand who is this new sector there is growing so rapidly? the fastest-growing sector of the population and the electorate. for our contributions to this country. this joint venture is contriving to the democratic process in this country. -- contributing to the process in this country. >> with the conventions we have seen a real demonstration of both parties trying to reach out to these communities, whether it is marco rubio with his prominence speaking our guest of honor, mayor castro.
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we have seen both parties trying to reach out. one of the things that is interesting is what we have this happening, it is fair to say that mitt romney has on immigration reform the laws conversion of -- conservative position. he is the first republican nominee not from a border state. not from california, arizona, or taxes and that might be one of the reasons why that is. just to say a few words about the joint venture with the conversion -- univision. maria is a broadcast giant and she and their colleagues have talked about important stories from the election in mexico to the interests and -- of latinos in america.
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abc news and univision will work more closely together as the companies get ready to launch a new news entertainment and lifestyle that work on line this month. it will be the first network with culturally relevant programming. in english for the fastest- growing demographic in the u.s., 50 million hispanics. it is a pleasure and treat to be sitting next to her. >> i am proud to kick off the session. and introduce someone who is a shining star. you have been hearing for weeks about this young mayor from santonio who would be the keynote speaker at this convention and he is the first hispanic at a democratic convention. a lot of expectation after in 2004, barack obama became the years later ther liter
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president. i want to -- now, mayor julian castro. [applause] it is great to see a. you did a great job. i have an opportunity to interview you and you tried to put a damper on the expectation that, you said i am not barack obama and i will do this my way. a lot of people would agree you did do this your way. there were able to talk about the opportunities available but i have to ask you, tell me about your daughter. she upstaged you last night. >> carina is 3 years old. i was getting to the part of my speech about passing the torch
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to the next generation and how would tell her in spanish, i told her what we took her to pre-k their day and i was on that line which is the apex of the whole speech. the most emotional line and they jumbotron has her foot in her hair. everyone starts -- the jumbotron has her flipping her hair. more than anything else in the years to come when she sees that she will have a great time and someone gave me a good suggestion that i should say that for her wedding reception one day and play that for everyone. >> you made history and strategy. you have a high-profile role in this convention. as i mentioned before it was president barack obama who gave
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that speech and he became president but several others -- people who have given keynote speakers have run for president. are you interested in running for president? >> no. that will not happen. they're more folks who have given a speech and gone nowhere. it is true there have been some folks who have gone places and people ask that all the way up through yesterday. even now of course. day never woke about on any and sadr want to be president. i got into politics because i wanted to make the community i came from our great city and i have a row competitive streak for san antonio. the fact is we have 29 statewide offices in texas and the count is 29-0 between republicans and
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democrats. putin's have to vote at a much greater rate in order for any democrat to be elected. >> the most powerful image is when you said the american dream is not a sprint or marathon. it is a relay among generations. in that context, how would you assess that treasury for the hispanic population. how is the really going? >> i believe america is working its magic on the star graphic groups aware has on others. the airport trajectory is happening in the latino community. that secure education. we saw new numbers on a surge in enrollment a lot -- among latinos and we have more latinos today who are getting their
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pasted's and masters, graduating from college and high-school that we did when my mother was growing up. in the realm of business, the fastest building section of business owners are latina. the number of's, latinos in elected office when you take everything from the senate to the school board level has tripled. there is a progress that has been made. however, we also have issues like espy 1070 in arizona and voter i.d. laws are being passed and as read response you're saying in places like alabama. is for profit -- progress. my family is an example of that and that is what i told yesterday. sometimes we take a couple of steps back. >> your mother was a well-known political activist but work as
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an actor dressed up service system. talk about how your perspective of how social change differs from hers. >> my mother grew up in a different time. she would get punished for speaking spanish in school and she went to catholic school for 16 years in a time when she was a girl that you would still see signs in the state of texas, though mexicans and no dogs allowed in some stores. a time of statutory discrimination. is different. her outlook and her participation in the chicano movement was fitting for that time. united a group out there like in any movement of progress. you have people who say we will protest and get folks to vote. something needs to change now. i am proud of that.
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when i got elected mayor, the first thing i did on the sunday and got to move in was a put of the 1971 campaign poster of when she ran for city council. the blessing that i have a as a younger bettino how is my generation, we're the beneficiaries of her work, her generation's work and the good hardness and ability of americans to become better as people, as a nation. that has been a blessing to the younger generation and we see the glass as half full by instinct. perhaps -- where carter for our heritage and we're able to operate in the corporate boardroom but in the legislative chamber or in the neighborhoods. there is a new generation of because the times have changed
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have a different approach. gregerson it seems likely that ted cruz will be elected. officialh statewide affec who is latino. the democratic party only has one in terms of senators and governors. senator menendez of new jersey. he referred to the national association of latino elected officials and there are many more officials who are democrats and republicans but not state why. the executive director said this is a consistent achilles heel for the democratic party. they have not been nurturing of hispanic leadership. i'm wondering if you think that is the problem, why republicans outpaced democrats and when can we look for texas to be a
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powerful state because of the changing demographic. >> i would say both parties historically did not do a good enough job of our reach to the latino community and cultivating leadership within the community. the jury is still out with regard to the effect of the wellspring of latino statewide candidates on the republican side. if we start getting into the mechanics of when these folks got elected, it was in the 2010 cycle, the tea party cycle, the historic wave of folks who rode into office. that was delayed in texas so we're seeing that with ted cruz now. with all the folks, the issue is not the personalities --
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politics, it is the personalities. i believe in the next six to see thears, you'll acceleration of that state into a purple state. the growth of the latino community that is faster than any other community, 60- something percent but polling had an interesting effect on crossed tabs. it took virginia for romney vs. obama and he was beating obama in virginia. romney was winning 51-45. among folks who have that there 10 years, obama was beating romney 67-29.
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the irony is this. texas has done relatively well during the last couple of years of downturn and that state has been growing like crazy. it is one of the fastest-growing states. you're half people moving into moderate states -- you have people living in -- moving into a moderate states. that will change. >> by 20 -- 2020. >> how do you reverse their voting pattern? the vote -- they are 25 times less likely to vote. >> that was a fascinating stat. latinos vote at less than 10%
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the rate as the anglo voters. in texas, it is 24% less. you wonder what is going on. >> why and how did you change that? >> you change it through old- fashioned voter registration drives, a voter turnout drives, we were talking about this offline and he had a good point about unions being a starter. they're a big mobilize zero r of votes.bilize one of the most untapped segment has been the second generation, third generation latina that is not spanish-dominant. at the same time, the campaign's and advertisers, that campaigns have not been speaking with advertising.
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they think -- folks think they have to advertise in spanish. they do not want to mix their messages in english. when you have is a channel that will be aimed at english- dominant latinos and a broader audience for will reach that demographic. that is an underappreciated but can be an influential way that the campaigns can mobilize a group the right now is not mobilized. i would tie in one last point. it was fascinating to see the breakdown of polling and president obama's support was strongest with new -- nor ever grants and weaker with second- third- and fourth
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generation latinas. with good grass-roots effort, i believe you have a formula there for amping up the latino vote. >> i was googling you to find out more. >> that was my twin brother. >> there was the story about the parade incident in 2005. wear your brother was mistaken for you in a parade and it became a kerfuffle. >> you know that one of our big events is faster. -- fiesta. there are two different parades. i would always take my brother.
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at the last minute i decided not to go on the parade but my brother was still there and he stayed on the barge, he was already on the barge, told the people who was, but the announcer just announced all the city council members as if all of us were there. my political opponents were on the barge and started saying we have tried to fool people, that he would play me. i said we're not trying to do that but no one believed us because it was too good of a story. we and a bon "good morning america" and had been storing up and down for seven years that we did not try to do that. we only tried to fool one teacher in high school one time. >> a make it harder after last night. thank you for joining us. -- it may become harder after last night. thank you for joining us.
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[applause] did you have a trivia question? >> that is a target audience we want to head with this. we have a couple of trivia questions. how many hispanics are eligible to vote in the u.s.? 14 million, 5, or 23 million? >> eligible. the eligible voter. 23. centerpiece. 12.2 are expected to vote. there is still low -- a lot of work to do. that could make a difference. if putin's are making a difference in a lot of races --
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latinos are making a difference in a lot our races, the difference could be more of their registered to vote and that is one of the biggest challenges this year. >> there is a question whether we will get that 12 million. there is discussion about whether we will get that high. let's bring up our next panelist. the founder and executive director of america and a's voice, a group that works on immigration issues. he served as executive director of the national immigration forum where he has been at the center of every immigration debate. he has been involved in many of these issues. let me start with you. i want to talk about president obama's record in this area. as we will discuss and we will discuss with our leader palace, the question of what happened or did not happen on comprehensive
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immigration reform in to those nine in 2010. responsibility is diffused. enforcement of the immigration laws are under his control, under his administration control. how do you assess the record of the obama administration on the enforcement of immigration laws. what has happened in the last year since they have announced their minister of guidance to revise the policy? president obama came in with the intention of fulfilling the promise he had made as a candidate. that he would make it a priority in his first year. i do not think he expected the lack of co -- republican corp. on every issue. he made priorities and came in with the idea that if you have tough enforcement and a willingness to deal, republicans
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would come to the table. that was the formula that had been present in 2006, 2007 when bills almost did pass but the ground shifted and obama was caught up in an old conventional wisdom that if democrats lead in to immigration, it would rally conservatives and heard them with swing voters and put democrats on the defensive. that was a position that was enunciated by from rangel. he said democrats should stay clear -- and unseated by rahm emanuel. he said democrats should stay clear. they should see what direction should be. it turned out that way that reaction would be divided and offensive. it would rally latinos.
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>> i give credit for president obama. there was one senator, marco rubio, who had an idea that was framed around these principles and who i think in the end gave cover to this president to be able to move forward. as he was putting up this notion and trying to gauge the rest of his party quietly and behind the scenes to figure this out, it was an opportunity that senator obama took advantage of and gave him the chance to lean into it. they were overwhelmed and surprised by the reaction not only among hispanics and the broader constituency but i think even the fact that there was not as much attack from the right. >> let me follow up. thinking of the broader issue, not that dreamer's but that
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security reggies program. your organization has put out press releases expressing concern about the way it is still being implemented a year after the president said they were shifting course. what is your sense of how that program is unfolding? what have they changed and what have they not changed? >> i do not think dhs has gone a memo. the white house had said that their priorities are the bad guys. secure committees is a program that outsources enforcement priorities to local police. the mother with a broken taillight is getting swept up in the dragnet and japan -- detained and deported. many low priority changes, his administration is putting on the path to deportation.
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i think in a second term there will have to dramatically change their enforcement practices so the lineup with the priorities they have enunciated. >> beyond the principles you are fighting for are the politics and it is tough to argue that anything other than john mccain -- pushed the immigration reform and for those of us who follow the senate, barack obama voting for poison-pill amendments that the coalition did not support. he emerged from some of his colleagues about that. when it came to election time, john mccain did horribly with latino voters and felt abandoned by the latino groups he felt he
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had been fighting for and probably the most or one of the most- ad -- negative ads that tried to link john mccain to the views of rush limbaugh. it made less sense whatsoever. he abandoned efforts that emigration reforms after the election as far as i can tell and just not talking about the principle, the politics. how can you blame him? he fell abandoned by latino groups. >> i would say his party abandoned him and we saw in the primaries leading up to his nomination, you had rudy giuliani and tom tancredo tried to outdo each other in terms of their extreme rhetoric. it became a weight that he could
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not overcome as he was heading into the nomination and he realized he could not fulfill what he had taken on. i think this is a reflection of the republican party been at great odds in terms of how reconcile engage in the latino community and dealing with this issue. we have to understand that if the republicans are going to gain strength and grow as a party, they will have to figure out how to deal with the issue of immigration and certainly reach out and engage in the latino community on a broader set of issues as well. >> a hypothetical -- i am a moderate republican senator. convince me this will help. >> if you are a moderate republican senator, i would
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really like to find you out there. [laughter] [applause] >> i said it was a hypothetical. >> ok. look, we have seen this shift. i am encouraged by what i've heard from senator marco rubio. i do not agree with him substantively, but i give him credit bed in january last year he stood up in front of a large region give him credit for in january let -- give him credit for in january last year standing up in front of republican leaders and saying we need to change ellet home and we need leadership that understands the way they have talked about hispanics and immigrants is counter-productive to them and their goals as a party and it is within their interests to deal with this issue. i gave john mccain of lot of credit.
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i know he was disappointed in the final outcome, but i do not think it was a reflection about him and his principles. i think there will be away where latinos who are eager to see leaders on both sides of the aisle, and to encourage that more -- and her if -- i am encouraged that both parties have been urging latinos. when we have robust representation on both sides, i believe all to believe we will get to a solution. >> most polls show the number one issue for latinos is the economy and jobs, and the number 2 issue is immigration, not education and health. what is the latino voter to do when they proceed one party to
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be costs fell to latinos and the other -- high style to latinos, and the other two and broken promises. how do you address that -- and the other 2 have broken promises. >> imagine? the republican ticket were jeb bush and -- imagine if the republican ticket were jeb bush and susana martinez. let's give the dreamers the credit they deserve for forcing the president into action that he responded to. it was not a good idea that came from the white house. it was an inevitable idea that came from the grass roots. the latino voter that cares about immigration has a choice now between someone who did not do enough, did not keep his promises, but put some skin in
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the game at a crucial moment, and a candidate who wants to embrace arizona laws, support self-deportation and veto the dream act. the contrast could not be more clear. people are disappointed in obama, but terrified of romney. >> is that enough to get them out to vote? i know nclr participates in getting people out to vote. how will you get people called to vote? you said we might not reach the 12.2 million voters. >> i think we have to do more and the mayor of san antonio, mayor kestrel alluded to it. -- castro alluded to it. we have seen great progress. we have to recognize the answer
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is not something that will change overnight. the mentality that somehow everything will shift entirely is not possible. we need to have a 2016, 2020 strategy to make sure we are increasing voter engagement. we have programs under way with the organizations that are now using not just the old style tactics, but we recognize media plays an important role. you have to do more in terms of issue advocacy and making sure the voters are informed. there is a broad campaign that we have continued to do and it involves elements where we will make sure folks are citizens, registered, informed voters, and we get them to the ballot box, but voter suppression laws are a real issue.
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>> what are the risks of latinos not going out to vote? will they get the same attention from the party's -- from the parties? >> i think we have to recognize that as important as immigration is, the economy and jobs is also an issue. lot of folks are disillusioned. it isn't just latino community. the turnout rate overall will be interesting. other groups have a lot at stake as well. we are working hard to make sure people understand what is said state, but for us, if we do not show continued progress in terms of turnout, we will not be respected and have the clout that we will need to change the policies that affect us. >> the president said last week
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in the second term i could get this done. part of the reason he did not act his fear about losing some of the more rural and blue- collar seats. even without immigration, they lost most of the seats in 2010 anyway. what would be different in a 2013 environment that you think would allow this to move forward more realistically than it did in the first two years? >> that fall, wins and the latino vote is a factor it is expected to be, i think the obama administration will be much more willing to lean into with hard, and you might see people like john mccain, lindsay gramm, and marco rubio assert the modern strain of republicans that are for -- moderate strain of republicans that are for immigration reform. what obama can say in 2013 if he
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is elected is ok, pick your poison. we are going to work together on legislation and you can share the credit, or i will continue to take executive action and the only one taking the credit and the risks. your choice. this is a stronger position. that is why i see the dreamer position as important. it will sow the seeds for a series of actions. >> frank sharry and janet murguia, thank you. jake tapper, the want to welcome our next guest? >> a trivia question? how many latino voters turned 18 every month, making them eligible to vote? >> i think i would have spoiled
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it. >> my answer is complicated. here is net migration. take the number of mexicans that immigrated to the united states, and subtract the amount of americans that moved from the u.s. to mexico. how many do you have? 0. that is the net migration. i would like to call xavier becerra to the stage. good to see you. first elected to congress in 1992. he is seeking his 11th term in california. he is the vice-chair of the house democratic caucus sits on the ways and means committee. thank you for joining. thises sodium-putting in your arm right now -- this is sodium
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ion putting in your are right now. what happens if president obama is elected assuming that congress stays the same? >> jake, you used the wrong word. it is not if, it is when, and it makes no difference if it is a democrat or a republican in office, we will get immigration reform. it is just a matter of when. i believe president obama we will get it done in the next term with or without republican help because honestly, i believe, and one of these days i will name them, there are conservative republicans who are tired of this. they want to move on. they would like to do what is right for the country because they have seen what this does. they are surrounded by these immigrants as well, and they
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are ready. it is just that right now they are in the grips of this minority within their my geordie and they cannot get loose of -- majority, and they cannot get loose of the tea party. >> how different is that from 2009-2010? you were in the room. democrats and their biggest majority since the 1970's. why was the decision made not to move forward on immigration reform in 2010 when health-care was off of the table? >> we were drinking from a fire-. how do you get a million people back to work? how do you stop millions from using their home? how do you get credit for small businesses in america? how did you tell a woman she is not a pre-existing condition, the way her insurance company tells her, and we wanted to crack this not called immigration. we were drinking from a fire hydrant.
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we did energy reform in the house of representative. >> that you found time for cap and trade, which was not an immediate response to the economic crisis. >> absolutely it was, ron bernstein. the price of energy was going not while income was going down. we needed this because if you get to balance budgets in the future, you have to deal with energy. >> let me ask the question
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again. where you and others advocating going forward with immigration while you have large majorities and what was the response you were given about why it did not come about? >> there was not a conversation with the president where we did not raise this and say you promised, and the promise said i absolutely did. have you ever heard the president back away from the promised? that was gutsy to make a promise on an issue the republicans thought was a winner for them. let me tell you what happened. democrats past immigration reform. we called it a dream act. in the senate passed. it never got to go to the president because of a procedural maneuver called the filibuster, which required that in the senate majority would not rule, that if you get a majority, democracy, you do stuff. well, 55 out of 100 is a majority and they said yes, but the republicans say we will require 64 that vote, it never got to the president -- 60 for that vote, it never got to the president. >> president obama has once again promised >> president obama has once
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again promised immigration reform, but if he continues to have a republican congress, he cannot keep that promise. nancy pelosi said unless democrats regain control of the house of representatives is not possible to have immigration reform. why make a promise he knows he cannot keep? >> i like to always agree with barack obama and nancy pelosi, but in this case, look, it is a matter of when, not if. we will get it. there are republicans, friends of mine, that are conservative, who want to do this, and i believe would be ready to break who saw it could be done without having 30 daggers in their back. the difficulty exists because leader nancy pelosi, soon-to-be speaker nancy pelosi, she is right. if democrats when control the congress, it gets done. if they do not get control, it will be hard for the president to live up to his promise.
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i do not believe republicans will ultimately obstruct. lamar smith, the charity gigi sherry committee in the house of representatives, -- the judiciary committee, the day after the president released his statement, was going to release a press release. why? he was told to put it back toward we will get this done. it is just a matter of when. >> congress has the lowest approval rating in its history. >> do not the cad me. >> it is there. -- you are there. >> will continue to be like this? congress has never been more polarized. >> is not interesting that every election for president really is the most important elections in our lifetime?
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that is the case in 2012. we are at this crossroads. it is almost as if we are watching america and what destiny it will have. will we be the destiny, where the america of the leadership of the julian castro and his growing generation, or will it be the leadership of those who issue legislation that creates sb1070 in arizona? i cannot ask the son of immigrants to be pessimistic. i'm very optimistic. i believe this country will choose the right path. i hope it is in 2012, strongly, one way or the other. the american dream cannot fail because my kids are still growing up and a lot of children have to experience what my parents did. my father had a sixth grade education.
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my mother came from mexico with no english, no family, and no money. >> i understand you are a fairly partisan democrat and rewarded for being that, why you think he of the party has done a better job of recruiting latino candidates to win statewide office? >> i was hoping to get that question. i do not think that is the case. >> numerically that is the case. >> i think they need to think latino democrats who voted for them because they had a name that sounds familiar. do i think the republican party has done a better job of appealing to latinos in terms of the issues that are important and the people that could do this? our third stop this -- arthur
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davis might not say this, but there is a elected membership that is democratic, and the republicans have a long way to go. good for the republicans said they have high-ranking latinos in their ranks, and shame on the democrats if we do not do that soon. >> why you think that is? do you agree that it is an achilles heel for the democrats? they're not nurturing the talent? >> it is letting the talent for to live to the top, and this is where we knew -- percolate to the top, and this is where we need help from good soldiers in politics and other communities that are far more mature. jewish brothers and sisters have been phenomenal and try to help the team knows blows up, and we need communities that i had success -- latino's moved up, and we need community step ahead success. my wife and i make more money in one year than it took my
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parents 20 years to make. it will be tough for folks like my parents to make contributions to talented, young, ambitious latinos to get into office if they have to rely on my parents. >> we will leave it there. we appreciate your thoughts. [applause] we have one more guest for you, antonio villaraigosa, mayor of los angeles, a former union organizer, former speaker of the california assembly, and the first hispanic mayor of los angeles since 1872. he is the chairman of the democratic national convention. thank you for joining us. good to see you. need a microphone. yes. i apologize -- >> i apologize for being late.
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the first lady had a rough time getting into the place, so we were a little late. >> we have talked a lot about immigration, but as mayor you have had a focus on education. 47% of americans under 18 are now non-white. are we on track to provide those young african-americans, hispanics, other minority kids the tools and skills they need to move into the middle class? >> absolutely not. let me refer to a friend, tom friedman, when he writes that the world is flat and we are not competing, he is talking about our kids a good of princeton, yale, ucla, stanford -- we are not competing in math and science around the world. when you talk about kids that are poor, you are talking about
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an achievement gap where these people are not competing with some in the developing world. that is a challenge. california will be 1 million down in the college graduates that we need for one reason, the achievement gap. some would say we need more money. we do need more money, but we also need to tie money to success, to results, to high standards, to innovation, to a blended learning, a teacher- effectiveness, a teacher- learning -- a number of things to pick up the success of our schools in california and around the country. >> you focus on a lot on teacher reform. in a los angeles public schools, 73% of the kids are hispanic, only 9% are white. we know two thirds of hispanic and african-american kids attend schools where a majority of students are from families with income is low enough to qualify for reduced lunches. is segregation still a
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contributor to the achievement gap to talk about? >> i think it is poverty, spending, but it think it is a failure on the part of leaders to set the high standard of success. why did jeb bush, and i know i am a democrat, why did jeb bush racecourse to a level where latinos did better than we should raise scores to a level where latinos did better than 36 states? we need to be willing to take on the status quo and set high examples for our kids. when i hear it is just poverty, these kids are poor on school lunch programs, their parents are english-language learners, they are foster kids, kids out of broken homes, you are talking about me. i could agree to read read and write. it is a lot of things, -- i could read and write. it is a lot of things. that is why focus on not just teacher-effectiveness, but the accountability that we need.
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if we are going to convince voters and taxpayers that we should spend more, and i believe we should spend more. when i went to california public schools we have the best and we were in the top five in spending. we have to connected to results and success, and focus on where we of the biggest problem, and the biggest problems are in low- performing schools, disproportionately with latinos and african-americans. >> i want to continue with a subject we have been talking about, why we do not have more latinos in higher office, particularly democrats. there are almost 6000 elected officials, of those that are partisan, 90% are democrats, republicans have higher offices. >> the last number i remember
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was close to 90%, but it is overwhelming the number that are latino. >> exactly, but you cannot go from here to president. >> tell that julian castro. >> to julian castro and yourself, what is the next step? >> what i meant as he has the talent. look, i agree with congressman xavier becerra. a lot of latinos who crossover -- i got the same thing. when i ran in 2001, i got a high number of latino republicans. they voted for me in big numbers. they still vote for me in big numbers, not as big as latino democrats. i think they have been purposeful in focusing on that
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recruitment of the highest level. there is no question about that. but, john pariahs is the speaker of the california state assembly. that is a big job. we are going to get there. there is no question about it. i think our party will realize that we can cross over. i was joking with some people that when i ran in 2001 -- you were there -- people said you can not run until 2017 when latinos would be about 35% of the electorate, and i said why is that, and these tend they are only 22%, and i said reaching they are only -- i said why is that, and they said they are only 22%. i think as time goes on you will see more of us in a position to run. i think julian castro will be a senator of texas, a governor, a president of the united states, and we have a deep bench.
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the difference between us and them -- they have great speakers. hine said everywhere i could say it that marco rubio -- i have said it everywhere i could say it -- marco rubio and suzanne a martina's are the best speakers at that convention bar none. when you have a platform that calls for a self-deportation of 12 million people, making life so oppressive that the self- deport, what they forget is the head of 5 million citizen children in this country, another million dreamers and no know whether country but their own. when they rally they are saying something, and i will tell you, cubans, central americans, whether they are, in fact non- latinos here that kind of rhetoric, that hate-filled
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language, they recoiled. i think they're soaring rhetoric does not connect with their politics. >> you mentioned the share of. there is a protest in los angeles county over the deportation rate. the trust act, the frank sharry mentioned before, that would withdraw participation, should gerry broz -- jerry brown sign that law? >> absolutely. and all of these issues -- marriage equality i took on in 1994. it was not popular speaking in spanish, broken spanish, maria elena would say, in 1994, but it was the right thing to do. governor jerry brown should sign it.
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i expect him to sign it. this is a state that should chart a different path than arizona, than alabama. if it is not clear what i feel, i made it clear. >> in your capacity as chair of the democratic national convention, it has been announced that the venue for tomorrow night's speech will be moved from the bank of america stadium, 75,000 seats to the much smaller venues, the time warner cable arena. i understand that the official explanation is severe weather forecast, but were you really going to be able to fill all of those seats? >> absolutely. absolutely. look, we were saying until last night, all of us, the show will go on. the fear is -- the fear is not
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just the rain. if there is lightning, people could get hurt. there was no issue about filling up the stadium. we have knocked on doors, reached out across the state, the south and the country. that was not going to be a problem. you all were saying the enthusiasm factor was down, and last night all democrats and republicans had to admit that the enthusiasm was there. it was strong and i will -- you will see it all the way through. a convention frames the campaign. we think everybody is watching because you are talking about it all the time, and i am talking about it, but most people are struggling and taking care of their families, they're not focused until now. >> the enthusiasm level is high among the delegates, what about the voters? >> the voters that i am talking
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to are excited. we have our work cut out for us. we of the most aggressive grass-roots effort to talk to voters in our history and any party's history, by the way. i have said for a long time that this will be a close election. it is a divided electorate the reason i agree -- he is not there anymore. i waited to hear him. the reason i agree with congressman xavier becerra, and there will be more specific and why i believe republicans will join democrats in pass comprehensive immigration reform and the dream act. they will do it because they have to. once they lose this election, they will move from the far right where they are on so many issues, to the middle ground.
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look, there are decent people in both parties, and reasonable people on both parties. they will realize they are losing the demographic. they will keep the issue of opposing abortion, but they will take out for rape and incest because that is extreme. that is where most people are. they will take out the morning after pill they will continue to be for civil unions, maybe not marriage. they're losing the demographic across the board, so they will vote for comprehensive immigration reform because they will get ready to act today lose this election to be a party of the middle again, and not a party that would make ronald reagan turned in his grave. >> mr. mayor, sit tight for one second. jake and maria elena, a few final words.
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>> it has been a great conversation. i look forward to doing more of this with the abc news univision partnership, and i wish we had similar turnout at the republican event, but you can now control everything. >> that is because there are more hispanic democrats. it has been wonderful sharing the stage with all of you. i think to have the importance of the hispanic vote, which will once again decide the election -- i think president obama has three challenges. unemployment, deportation, and voter disenchantment. this apathy among latino voters. for a lot of people that are here, i think it is their job to go out and motivate latinos to vote for whoever they want to vote for. like we say, vote for whoever you want to vote for, but go out and vote.
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>> i actually say that, too, not right now. >> in spanish? >> i have said it in spanish and english. we want people to vote. we want all americans to vote. we like to talk about how little latinos vote. america is not voting, everybody, compared to western democracies. they vote more in mexico than they do in the united states. let's be clear that we all have to lift up the notion that their right to vote is something sacred and crack a good final thought. >> i hope you -- sacred. >> a good final thought. i hope you keep an eye out for abc and univision, and join me in thanking all against for this to begin this afternoon and we hope to see you at another event down the road. thank you. [applause] [captioning performed by national captioning institute] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2012] >> watch and engage as the
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presidential candidates meet in three debates next month. at the university of denver, hofstra university in new york, and lynn university from florida. >> the u.n. is us. your government and the mine. -- and mine. sometimes we talk about the u.s. as "it" or "they," distancing ourselves. by doing that, we are giving them an alibi at blaming the
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secretary and secretary general. one of my predecessors used to say that we often referred to the secretary general as chief for short. it stands for escape goat. >> you are the world's scapegoat in chief. >> exactly. member states and the media have to be very careful not to dump on us so much so we will not even be useful as an ally of. >> more with kofi annan tonight at 10:00 p.m. and sunday at 9:00 p.m. >> these images are not what i call promiscuous illustrations. they were not printed in box. they were not necessarily images
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that appeared in weekly publications. they were images that people purchased to decorate their homes, to really supplant or at least rise to the level of religious icons of old. they were icons. >> an historian on the civil war images. live next sunday, the 150th anniversary of the battle of antietam. >> now a look at helping members of the military vote. pam mitchell up did reporters at the pentagon for about 10 minutes -- updated reporters at the pentagon for about 10 minutes. >> good afternoon.
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voting assistance for absentee military voters have never been better. i say it because of all the things we have put in place by way of our region and tools to help them to register and exercise their right to vote. we have online wizards. drop down menus and the things that walk you through step by step how to do something. in this case, registering for and obtaining an absentee ballot the big they go as far as putting in the right address on a mailing envelope that you can print out and mail in. we use social media -- twitter and facebook so we can reach out to the largest military population which is this 18 to 25-year olds. we have a mobile website so using a smartphone or a tablet,
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you can obtain access to our information. we use e-mail for every member with an address to remind them how they can register to vote. in fact, as we are here today, we have an e-mail blast going out right now. we have a call center that operates five days a week that can be used by voters worldwide to obtain assistance on how to file an absentee ballot. and we have voting assistant officers. we have installation assistance boater offices. you may have heard that there was a report just released that calls attention to the installation voter assistant
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offices. the contact information that they use to try to establish contact with the installation offices there simply was outdated. why was it outdated? in a military environment, things change. military members are reassigned. things change. we have joint bases. we have other kinds of things that happen so in any military environment whether the subject be voting or anything else, contact information changes. we agree with the ig that the most important thing we can do is to find the most effective way to maintain assistance for all of our absentee voters. we are absolutely committed to continue working with all stakeholders including the
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congress to make sure that voting assistance remains the best it has ever been. i spent 25 years in the army and i voted absentee. i only wish i had access to the tools and resources that are available to our men and women today. i will take the first question. >> the military voter protection project says absentee ballot requests are down significantly, particularly in some of the swing states. they gave some numbers. can you explain why the absentee ballot requests are down this year? >> let me talk about what we know. we maintain a record of downloads from our web sites of the federal post card application which is a request to register to vote as well as a request for an absentee ballot. if we look back at the last
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presidential election in 2004 when there was a sitting incumbent and an uncontested primary, we are essentially running neck and neck with the number of applications down loaded. we are very close to running the same amount of downloads. we do not monitor the universe of the way in which people may register to vote or obtain ballots. they can also talk to voting assistant officers. that can go directly to states and localities. there are also private parties that maintain website to offer these services. talking to any number of folks who go to different places to get this information. >> do you reject criticism that the department has not done enough to help the military boating population -- >> i strongly believe voting
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assistance is the best it has ever been. next please. >> back to that report -- is there any reason to believe that the troops have those new updated numbers? i am sure the ig folks would have called back. >> that is a great question. we have personally called all 221 offices and we're certain the intermission posted to our website is correct. in many cases, actual locations where these offices are. we are committed between now and the general election of calling each of the 221 offices every single week to make sure we have the most updated information. >> in the report, it appeared
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the department indicated that it really did not think that these offices were really all that effective. you mention social media a number of times. are these offices prescribed by congress as they are not really cost effective or not efficient? >> we are committed to evaluating all tools to determine what of the most effective things going forward or the best ways to reach our absentee voters. will work with the congress and all affected stakeholders to continue to take a look at that and refined the way in which we conduct our reach. >> what is the current assessment? do you feel like those offices
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are in effective tool? >> i feel like those offices are an effective tool for some voters. that is to save they are one of many tools in the arsenal. our job is to provide assistance to a multitude of absentee voters then they are they effective for some? yes, they are. we will continue to evaluate the best methods of our reach. >> can you just outlined for a military voter what is the process they should go through between now and the election date? what are the deadlines they need to meet? what is the easiest way to do this? >> we have a number of options. they can visit with their unit voting assistance officer or they can go on-line to a website or go directly to state
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or local jurisdiction web site as available. they can use any of those methods to obtain a request to register to vote as well as obtain an absentee ballot. our online wizard will walk them through the process. as for deadline's coming across the board it would probably be a good thing to say about 30 days before the election but i would rather refer you to our website where we the information from all the states. yes? >> what is your metric for success when it comes to election day? if the absentee ballot numbers of our lower, is that a failure for the office? >> what we are focused on is providing assistance. that means making sure people have the information, the tools,
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the resources they need to decide to register to vote and request an absentee ballot and then cast their vote. at the end of the day we are trying to do to make sure they have everything they need to exercise that right to vote. it is a personal responsibility to execute that. we do not believe voter registration is an accurate way to detect whether or not voter assistance is effective. another question? >> thank you for coming today to answer any questions. if you have any questions, please feel free to take a look at their website. the federal voting assistance
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program. thank you. [captioning performed by national captioning institute] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2012] >> secretary of state hillary clinton is attending a summit this weekend. she hopes the u.s. congress will help make it happen. the law still remains in place. secretary clinton also met with the russian foreign minister who says that russia rejects u.s. calls for increased pressure on the syrian president to step down and russia will not go along with increased sanctions. secretary clinton has been visiting the pacific islands and china.
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iran is not building a nuclear bomb according to a former iranian adviser and nuclear envoy who recently discussed the nuclear program there. from the commonwealth club of california, this is just over an hour. >> good evening and welcome to today's meeting of the commonwealth club of california, the place where you are in the know. you can find the commonwealth club on the internet. i am philip yun. i will be your moderator for today's program. this program is also being held in association with the middle east forum. now i am pleased to introduce our distinguished speaker, seyed mousavian. former foreign policy adviser to the secretary of the iran supreme national security
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council, a woodrow wilson scholar at princeton university, and author of "the iranian nuclear crisis: a memoir." ambassador mousavian's book is the first detailed account from an iranian perspective of the events between iran and the west from 20002. from reading his book, it is clear that ambassador mousavian is a defender of iran could go nuclear program. he was a prominent iranian government official and diplomat. serving as the iranian ambassador to germany and the 1990's as well as a spokesperson for the iranian nuclear negotiating team. he also was arrested by the government of president ahmadinejad on charges of espionage in 2007.
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it is safe to say that ambassador mousavian has an insider's perspective on iran and its policy-makers. in light of current events in iran, it becomes critical for us to better understand what the iranian government is thinking and why if we are to do all that we can to figure out an acceptable, non-military solution to this impasse. ladies and gentlemen, please welcome ambassador mousavian. [applause] >> thank you very much. it is a great pleasure for me, an honor, to be here with such distinguished guests tonight. first i would like to thank the organizers of this meeting.
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i would also like to thank the lphilip for moderating the program. i would like to talk about iran- u.s. relations and the nuclear issue. as teh head of the foreign relations committee of the iran supreme national security council, i am fully convinced that iran is not after a nuclear bomb. the elimination of weapons of mass destruction and the establishment of a zone free from such weapons in the middle east are important elements of iran's national security doctrine. nevertheless, i ran's nuclear program has remained the number 1 political dilemma of the u.s.
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for the past decade. the nine years of negotiations between iran and the p5 +1, the nuclear issue has failed and will likely continue to do so as long as hostilities persist. -- once again return to the negotiation table. in the past month, they have held talks in moscow which have created momentum with very little in substance. while the u.s. has already began ppolitical, economic, and
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cyber war with iran, it is likely that relations will reach a turning point within one year on the nuclear issue. without substantial progress on the diplomatic front, the chance for a unilateral israeli or a joint u.s.-israeli campaign aimed at destroying the iranian nuclear program could become a probability. it is therefore critical importance for a better understanding of iran-u.s. dispute on weapons of mass destruction. the first question is how did we get here? western countries are competing
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to win lucrative projects to nuclearize iran. . in this period, nuclear technology was essential and jujstified. gerald ford signed a directive according to which iran was supposed to have a complete nuclear fuel cycle. both providing for a growing ord of iran's economy conversion to petrochemicals.
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when asked whether iran would pursue a nuclear weapon, he replied sooner than one would think. after india tested a nuclear device that same year, he said if other nations in the region deployed a nuclear weapon, then perhaps the nation or the national interest of any other country would demand the same. i am convinced that if alive today, iran would have many nuclear power plants. the u.s. proposed i ran to have 23 power plants by the year 2000
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from the mid 1970 proposal. i am convinced that if was alive today, iran would have many nuclear power plants and uranium enrichment facilities. in the arsenal will be on par with those of pakistan, india, and israel. after the evolution of 1979, iran remains committed to non- proliferation treaty and decided to shrink ambitious nuclear military projects. in response, the west withdrew from all nuclear agreements and contracts, chansosanctions. this was mainly due to the hostility between iran and the u.s.
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this forced iran to finish billions of dollars of bond finished projects which iran already paid to western countries like france, germany, and the u.s. furthermore, saddam hussein invaded iran and the west provided support for the aggressor. his use of chemical weapons against iranian civilians where tens of thousands were killed or injured. his event also changed iran's security calculations. right after i ran it mastered the enrichment technology, the case came into the spotlight in 2003. since 2003, and after 4000 days
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of inspection of nuclear facilities, the u.s. and its allies generally agree on three things about iran's nuclear program. first, tehran does not have a nuclear bomb. second, iran has not decided to build a nuclear bomb. third, probably years away from haivng a deliverable nuclear warhead if it decides to develop a nuclear bomb. nevertheless, they believe iran intends to at least acquire the capability to build a nuclear weapon. the capability is the question. in a relatively short time, should it deemed necessary. as a result, they do not trust
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iran will confine its nuclear activities to non-military purposes. in reality, iran nuclear program is a subsidiary issue of iran- west relations. specifically, iran-u.s. relations. while the relations are is subsidiary issue of iran-is issues.raeli since india, pakistan, and israel enjoy strategic relations with the u.s. and the west even though they are not a member of a non-proliferation trea ty. what can be done? on the nuclear issue, talks etween iran and eu 3 -- germany, france, and the u.k. --
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talks failed because the u.s. was not on board. agreements in may 2010 failed because of the u.s. objection. proposal in 2011 failed because of the u.s. declined. even the recent talks in istanbul and moscow failed because the u.s. was not ready to compromise on two major issues in response to iran's overture. first, recognizing the rights of iran, the non-proliferation treaty, and gradually lifting sanctions. that is why i have always advocated a realistic track policy. first, the bilateral talks
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between iran and the u.s. on a comprehensive package including all bilateral, regional, and international issues. a direct talk between iran and the u.s. the second track between iran and the eu. this is the track that we need to be held. on iran-u.s. talks, despite harsh rhetoric, president ahmadinejad had to reach out to the u.s. more than all previous i iranian presidents since 1979. because he had a freer hand apartment toward the u.s. during this time he has written letters to both presidents -- george w. bush and barack obama,
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-- including congratulations president obama in 2008, while the u.s. counterparts have never responded to him. in 2005-2009, one of ahmadinejad's adviser met with the former u.s. defense secretary and two u.s. congressman at a table meeting organized at the capital. adviser on terrorism and proliferation issues and the iranian ambassador also participated in the talks. right after the iranian president election in 2009, ahmadinejad sent a message to barack obama.
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that he wanted, ahmadinejad, wanted direct talks with the united states and is ready to cooperate and help the u.s. in afghanistan and elsewhere. this was the message. in october 2009, the highest level talks ever held between the iranians and americans took place. president barack obama also made some unprecedented diplomatic gestures toward iran, raising hopes that the animosity might be overcome and an approach achieved.
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it was the first for any american president since 1979. gestures werel met with positive signs. obama sent two letters. to twoddition administrations and encouraging a dialogue in which high-level former u.s. officials met with current iranian officials. not just once, but maybe about 10 or 15. despite these unprecedented efforts by both presidents, engagement has failed thus far. it will continue to fail as long as both sides undermine this dual track approach. official statements and
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diplomatic abilities released by wikileaks showed that since early on in obama's tenure, the u.s. continued the bush administration's policy of increasing pressures on iran through new sanctions, hinting at a readiness to take military action and supporting covert sabotage of iran's nuclear program. the u.s. has taken the toughest poicies to date against iran. the most far-reaching sanctions legislation in the history of iran-u.s. relations by congress. securing a four sanction resolutions promised as a beckley 1979 -- 1929 as the most comprehensive sanctions that the
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international community has ever approved. the u.s. navy ordered all units to rebuild the persian gulf as the arabian gulf. orchestrating international pressure on iran to impose additional unilateral sanctions beyond the realm of the current u.n. sanctions. the u.s. sanctions is costing $133 million a day. following the congressional election in 2011, the director of economic and political analyst company called on members of congress to support
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president obama's iran policies because he said obama has done more to undermine i ran over the course of two years then george w. bush did in eight years. in response to the u.s. dual track policy, the iranian leader noted they have extended their arms toward iran but with what kind of hand? an iron hand will not make very good sense. these actions have made the iranian side believe that obama's talks is just talk. and have also raised the cost of the iranian side to approach the u.s. for encroachment. iran meanwhile has pursued a dual track of its own. ahmadinejad has sabotaged his engagement policy with rhetoric
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that has antagonized the u.s. and its allies, questioning of the holocaust, suggesting that the terrorist attack of 9/11 was at the u.s. government conspiracy, and that israel must be raised from the page of history. such rhetoric as increase the political cost tremendously for american politicians if they were seen to be soft on iran. this approach has been counterproductive and has left an impression in tehran and washington that the other side has no real interest or in tension in solving relations. therefore, due to this approach, both sides of are confused about whether engagement is for the other side a strategy or a tactic. the second main problem is a
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piecemeal approach. iran is after a comprehensive deal with the u.s. to ensure the entire game plan including the end goal before committing itself to anything. iran is asking for a grand bargain including the nuclear issue. the u.s. is suggesting a piecemeal approach. iranians have experienced such policy for the last three decades with no success. due to past experiences, i believe we need a mixed approach which i will introduce. to revive relations but in washington and tehran, the following principles can facilitate a constructive engagement policy. the measures which i propose to tehran and washington will take
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engagement and negotiation. first, dual track approaches are seized. second, the language of threat and harsh rhetoric is set aside. third, hostile actions, sanctions, and other forms of course of pressures are put on hold. agree on a comprehensive agenda including all bilateral, regional, and international issues, administrating the entire game plan. but in implementing a phased-in approach plan. this is what the u.s. once. this is a mixed approach. a comprehensive package with a phased in approach. issues of common interest are
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given priority in teh talks. iran and the u.s. have common interest and several issues like security and stability of afghanistan and iraq, combating terrorist networks, and preventing drug trafficking. such a skillful approach would be only possible if and when tehran and washington can isolate internal and external spoilers. the frame work on the nuclear dilemma. on the nuclear issue, iran and the eu can agree on a solution where iran would adhere to all international resolutions and committees at the maximum level of transparency defined by the
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international atomic energy agency to ensure the peaceful nature of iranian nuclear activities and international community that the iranian nuclear program would remain forever. not only peaceful, but iran would be committed to be a non- military state. the u.s. would also agree to recognize the legitimate rights of iran for enrichment and to leave the sanctions graduallly. this framework can be realized in the future through a step-by- step plan based on npt. mutual confidence building and appropriate recipes also-- and t point. to ensure the solution.
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actively pursuing the elimination of weapons of mass destruction and the middle east. this is the best sustainable, durable solution for all middle eastern countries. i would gladly take questions. [applause] >> the hour thanks to ambassador mousavian, former foreign policy adviser to the iran supreme national security council, a visiting research scholar at princeton university, and author of "the iranian nuclear crisis: a memoir." now it is time for audience questions. we have a number of them and they cover a wide range. let's start with


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